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Working Paper
The persistence of moderate inflation in the Czech Republic and the Koruna crisis of May 1997
Macroeconomic policy in the Czech Republic has been based on a fixed exchange rate for most of the post-1993 period and a conservative fiscal policy characterized by a government budget that was close to balance combined with a tight monetary policy that sought to maintain high interest rates and to restrict the growth of the money supply. Surprisingly, given the Czech Republic's good starting conditions for carrying out such a "soft landing" in its macroeconomic stabilization, the economy was hit by a speculative attack on the koruna in May, 1997, and the economy, which had shown some ...
Journal Article
The evolution of monetary policy in transition economies
The last decade of the 20th century brought about many economic and financial changes in the economies of the former communist countries. This paper provides an overview of the developments that took place in the areas of financial markets and institutions and monetary policy in three of the most advanced transition economies, namely, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. After examining the evolution of monetary policy in each country, the problems that monetary authorities have faced in these countries are highlighted, and the current approach to managing inflation is described. Although ...
Working Paper
The end of moderate inflation in three transition economies?
This paper examines the ending of moderate rates of inflation in three transition economies, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland at the end of 1998. We argue that the institutions for the conduct of monetary policy in these countries were relatively weak and that monetary policy was unsupported by fiscal policy and hampered by multiple objectives. Using a VAR model of inflation, we show that, under a variety of assumptions, foreign prices and the persistence of inflation are the key determinants of inflation in these countries. From this finding we conclude that the end of moderate ...
Working Paper
Sources of real and nominal exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies
This paper provides an empirical inquiry into the sources of movements of the real and nominal exchange rates in Hungary and Poland for during the 1990:01-1998:02 period. We decompose the exchange rate movements into those attributable to real and nominal shocks, we find that (1) nominal shocks have played a significant role in Poland, but not in Hungary, in explaining real exchange rate movements during the transition period. Instead, real shocks have dominated real exchange movements in Hungary and (2) nominal shocks explain almost all of nominal exchange rate movements in Poland and a ...