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Report
International capital flow pressures
This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast exchange market pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is theory-based, relying on balance of payments equilibrium conditions and international asset portfolio considerations. Based on the modified exchange market pressure index, the paper also proposes a global risk response index, which reflects the country-specific sensitivity of capital flow pressures to measures of ...
Working Paper
Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves
In August 2011, the Swiss National Bank engaged in unconventional monetary policy through an unprecedented expansion of bank reserves. As these actions did not involve any outright long-term asset purchases, this unique episode allows for novel insights on the transmission mechanism of central bank balance sheet expansions to interest rates. Analysis of the response of Swiss bond yields to announcements regarding this program suggests that expansion of reserves by itself can lower long-term yields through a portfolio balance effect.
Report
International Capital Flow Pressures and Global Factors
The risk sensitivity of international capital flow pressures is explored using a new Exchange Market Pressure index that combines pressures observed in exchange rate adjustments with model-based estimates of incipient pressures that are masked by foreign exchange interventions and policy rate adjustments. The sensitivity of capital flow pressures to risk sentiment, including for so-called safe-haven currencies, evolves over time, varies significantly across countries, and differs between normal times and extreme stress events. Across countries, risk sensitivities and safe-haven status are ...
Working Paper
A Portfolio Model of Quantitative Easing
This paper presents a portfolio model of asset price effects arising from central bank large-scale asset purchases, commonly known as quantitative easing (QE). Two financial frictions?segmentation of the market for central bank reserves and imperfect asset substitutability?give rise to two distinct portfolio effects. One derives from the reduced supply of the purchased assets. The other runs through banks? portfolio responses to the created reserves and is independent of the assets purchased. The results imply that central bank reserve expansions can affect long-term bond prices even in the ...
Journal Article
Transmission of asset purchases: the role of reserves
The Swiss National Bank expanded bank reserves as part of its unconventional monetary policy during the European sovereign debt crisis. The unprecedented expansion involved short-term rather than long-term asset purchases. This approach provides novel insights into how central bank balance sheet expansions affect interest rates. In particular, it illustrates how an expansion of reserves can lower long-term yields through a reserve-induced portfolio balance effect that is independent of the assets purchased.