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Journal Article
Evidence on entrepreneurs in the United States: data from the 1989–2004 survey of consumer finances
Using data from the Federal Reserve Board?s Survey of Consumer Finances, the authors examine characteristics of entrepreneurs and the businesses they run. Their analysis confirms that business owners are important sources of saving and wealth creation in the U.S. and that they are less risk averse than other wealthy households. This discounts the notion that the wealth of entrepreneurs disproportionately reflects a buildup of precautionary balances to guard against financial risk.
Journal Article
An evaluation of real GDP forecasts: 1996-2001
During the second half of the 1990s, forecasters made large and persistent underpredictions of GDP growth; subsequently, they missed the drop off into the recession of 2001. Forecasters do not appear to have behaved unusually during this period: Their out-period forecasts were not far from their perceptions of longer-run trends. This suggests that the forecast errors in 1996-2001 likely reflected some unusual behavior in the economy.
Working Paper
Tracking U.S. Consumers in Real Time with a New Weekly Index of Retail Trade
We create a new weekly index of retail trade that accurately predicts the U.S. Census Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). The index's weekly frequency provides an early snapshot of the MRTS and allows for a more granular analysis of the aggregate consumer response to fast-moving events such as the Covid-19 pandemic. To construct the index, we extract the co-movement in weekly data series capturing credit and debit card transactions, mobility, gasoline sales, and consumer sentiment. To ensure that the index is representative of aggregate retail spending, we implement a novel ...
Journal Article
Consumption-based macroeconomic forecasting
The authors build a small-scale econometric model based on the permanent income theory of consumption and balanced economic growth in order to study the influence of permanent and transitory factors on the level of economic activity.
Newsletter
2005 Conference on Price Stability: a summary
On November 3 and 4, 2005, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago?s Inflation Research Center hosted the ?2005 Conference on Price Stability.? This conference brought together leading academic economists and policymakers to discuss the latest research on the determinants of inflation and their implications for questions facing monetary policymakers.
Working Paper
Tracking U.S. Consumers in Real Time with a New Weekly Index of Retail Trade
We create a new weekly index of retail trade that accurately predicts the U.S. Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). The index’s weekly frequency provides an early snapshot of the MRTS and allows for a more granular analysis of the aggregate implications of policies implemented during the Covid-19 pandemic. To construct the index, we extract the co-movement in several weekly data series capturing credit & debit card transactions and revenues, mobility, and consumer sentiment as well as monthly retail and food services sales excluding automotive spending (ex. autos) from the ...
Newsletter
Changes in the Risk-Management Environment for Monetary Policy
In response to the massive challenges presented by the global financial crisis, in late 2007 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began a series of large reductions in its traditional policy tool, the overnight interest rate in the federal funds market. By December 2008 the Committee had lowered the target to its effective lower bound (ELB) of 0 to 25 basis points.1 Later, in an attempt to provide additional monetary stimulus, the FOMC implemented nontraditional policy tools, such as large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance about how long the fed funds rate would stay at very low ...
Discussion Paper
The informational efficiency of econometric model forecasts
Journal Article
On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy : commentary
Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary Transmission