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Working Paper
Returns on illiquid assets: are they fair games?
Krainer, John; LeRoy, Stephen F. (1997)
The simplest tests of capital market efficiency are tests of the fair game model: conditional expected returns less the interest rate are equal to zero. The fair game model is thought to obtain only when markets are perfectly liquid. We show that this conjecture is false. In a model of the housing market where heterogeneous agents must search for partners in order to trade, excess returns on housing wealth are fair games if, as is appropriate, returns are defined to include shadow prices measuring illiquidity.
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 97-05

Report
The subprime mortgage market: national and Twelfth District developments
Furlong, Frederick T.; Krainer, John (2007)
Annual Report

Journal Article
Bank Regulation Affects Monetary Policy Transmission
Paul, Pascal; Krainer, John; Greenwald, Daniel L. (2026-10-13)
How does monetary policy impact banks’ lending behavior when interest rate changes revalue their securities? Detailed supervisory data show that banks with larger losses on securities during the 2022–23 monetary policy tightening cycle extended less credit to firms. This spillover effect was especially strong for securities that were marked to market and not hedged, and for banks required to include unrealized losses in regulatory capital. These conditions lead to larger reductions in corporate debt and investment, increasing monetary policy’s impact on the economy.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2026 , Issue 30 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Hot and cold real estate markets in the San Francisco Bay Area
Krainer, John (1999)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
House prices and bank loan performance
Krainer, John (2009)
This Letter discusses the strong link between house price depreciation and defaults on loans for residential mortgages as well as for land development and construction.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
House price dynamics and the business cycle
Krainer, John (2002)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
The current strength of the U.S. banking sector
Lopez, Jose A.; Krainer, John (2003)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Stock market volatility
Krainer, John (2002)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Banking and the business cycle
Krainer, John (2001)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Falling house prices and rising time on the market
Krainer, John (2008)
This Economic Letter reviews the ways residential real estate prices and liquidity vary over time and over different states of the economy and discusses the implications of this behavior for consumers and lenders.
FRBSF Economic Letter

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