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Discussion Paper
Fifth District Employment: Findings From the June Business Surveys
In our June business surveys1, we asked Fifth District firms how their ability to hire workers has changed since last year and what their expectations are for their workforces over the next six months. Firms reported little change in their ability to hire workers compared to this time last year. Moreover, firms that experienced changes in their ability to hire workers, for better or for worse, cited changes in the labor pool — both in size and skills available — as the driving factor. Over the next six months, most firms expect to hold headcount steady. However, the minority of firms ...
Discussion Paper
Supply and Demand: When Will We See Balance?
Discussion Paper
The Impact of the Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse on Fifth District Firms
The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland, on March 26 killed six people, severed a major interstate highway, and temporarily closed the Port of Baltimore. This Macro Minute blog post last month discussed potential regional economic effects as well as several reasons to be hopeful for the port's long-term recovery upon reopening.Between March 28 and April 17 in our April manufacturing and service sector surveys, to assess its immediate economic impact, we asked Fifth District firms to report if and how the bridge collapse will impact their businesses. Overall, 30 ...
Discussion Paper
Are Customers Pulling Back on Spending? Evidence From the Richmond Fed Business Surveys
In the last few years, consumer spending in the United States has been remarkably resilient. In our August business survey, we sought to understand if Fifth District firms have recently experienced softening demand for their goods or services. A majority of firms reported that over the past three months, customers decreased the amount of goods and services purchased — both in quantity and in dollar amount. The survey also found that demand has softened more for manufacturers and retailers than firms in other industries. Additionally, firms reported that lower-income customers pulled back on ...
Journal Article
Understanding the Motivations for Business Participation in Voluntary Web-Based Business Surveys
As survey response rates decline nationwide, Federal Reserve Banks face challenges to engaging business survey panelists to collect some of the economic data that helps inform monetary policy. This Economic Commentary examines what motivates businesses to participate in some of the survey panels run by the regional groups at the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland and Richmond. Based on 312 survey responses, our results show that while helping the Fed is the primary motivation across all segments, participation drivers vary by firm size, recruitment method, and panel tenure. These findings ...
Discussion Paper
Fifth District Firms Are Optimistic Going Into 2025
Around the start of the new year, the Richmond Fed adds questions to its monthly business surveys to gauge Fifth District firms' expectations for their business and for the U.S. economy in the upcoming year. In the previous two years, firms were cautious in their expectations, with about half of firms optimistic while one in five firms were pessimistic about the coming year. (For previous analyses, follow these links for the 2023 outlook and the 2024 outlook.) This made sense as the past two years experienced residual effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, decades-high inflation, and an ...
Discussion Paper
Results From the Survey of Community College Outcomes Extended Pilot
After three years of developing partnerships with community colleges across the Fifth District, we are proud to release our first-year results from our extended pilot of the Survey of Community College Outcomes.When the Richmond Fed launched this initiative, the most common question we heard from community colleges was, "Why does the Richmond Fed care about community colleges?" The answer is that the Richmond Fed cares about workforce development, and community colleges play a vital role across the Fifth District providing individuals with the skills needed to participate in the workforce.
Discussion Paper
The Impact of Hurricane Helene on Fifth District Businesses
Hurricane Helene caused significant disruptions across the Fifth District, especially in western North Carolina, upstate and western South Carolina, and Southwest Virginia. More than 200 people died from the storm, utilities and drinking water became unavailable, and people were displaced from their homes. In the storm's aftermath, the Richmond Fed has been actively monitoring and reporting about its impacts, including on the devastation of Hurricane Helene and what we have been learning as business conditions evolve. In our November business surveys, fielded between Oct. 24 and Nov. 20 ...
Discussion Paper
Impacts of Tariffs on Rural Businesses: Insights from Our Business Surveys
As a part of the Richmond Fed's March business surveys, we asked firms how tariff policies might affect their business. Additionally, we asked responding businesses to indicate their geographic footprint: urban, suburban, small town, and/or rural. We were particularly interested in understanding how rural-operating businesses expect to be impacted by tariff policies compared to their urban counterparts. In our analysis, we consider rural-only businesses to operate only in rural areas or small towns. We consider urban-only businesses to operate only in cities or suburban areas.We find that ...
Discussion Paper
Regional Businesses Returning to Pre-COVID-19 Operations