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Discussion Paper
Firms and Artificial Intelligence: A Regional Update
Similar to past technological developments, the productivity implications, labor market implications, and thus economic implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will evolve over time. A lot depends on who is using AI tools, when they are using them, and how they are using them.In the Richmond Fed's December business surveys — which were fielded between Dec. 1 and Dec. 17 — we asked firms if they have adopted AI and if so, how they were using it. Businesses reported that they were increasingly providing employees with access to AI tools to complete tasks but were less likely to have ...
Discussion Paper
Impacts of Tariffs on Rural Businesses: Insights from Our Business Surveys
As a part of the Richmond Fed's March business surveys, we asked firms how tariff policies might affect their business. Additionally, we asked responding businesses to indicate their geographic footprint: urban, suburban, small town, and/or rural. We were particularly interested in understanding how rural-operating businesses expect to be impacted by tariff policies compared to their urban counterparts. In our analysis, we consider rural-only businesses to operate only in rural areas or small towns. We consider urban-only businesses to operate only in cities or suburban areas.We find that ...
Discussion Paper
Are Fifth District Firms Revisiting Their Prices Less Often Amid Cooling Inflation?
The Richmond Fed's monthly business surveys of Fifth District firms gauge regional firm dynamics in pricing. We carefully monitor changes in firms' realized prices as well as their pricing expectations, especially since inflation began to accelerate in 2021 and 2022. Early last year, we examined how firms began to adjust their prices more frequently as firms' price forecasts became less accurate and uncertainty rose, as evidenced by a rising standard deviation of price growth expectations.
Discussion Paper
Results From the Survey of Community College Outcomes Extended Pilot
After three years of developing partnerships with community colleges across the Fifth District, we are proud to release our first-year results from our extended pilot of the Survey of Community College Outcomes.When the Richmond Fed launched this initiative, the most common question we heard from community colleges was, "Why does the Richmond Fed care about community colleges?" The answer is that the Richmond Fed cares about workforce development, and community colleges play a vital role across the Fifth District providing individuals with the skills needed to participate in the workforce.
Discussion Paper
Is Wage Growth Normalizing? What Fifth District Businesses Are Saying About Wages
In the past few years, firms across the nation have reported increased wages due, at least in part, to a supply of labor that cannot keep up with robust demand. Last July, we wrote about how Fifth District firms reported notable acceleration in the growth rates of both realized and expected wages. More recently, wage growth has declined, and a rising share of firms expect their wage growth for 2024 to be "about normal." However, wage growth remains above pre-COVID-19 levels. Our business surveys suggest that wage growth might remain elevated for some time.
Discussion Paper
Fifth District Firms Are Cautiously Optimistic About 2024 Despite Concerns
At the start of both 2023 and 2024, we asked our business survey panelists about their expectations for the upcoming year. In our recent December survey, we found that most manufacturing firms were pessimistic about the U.S. economy going into 2024 but were more bullish about their own-firm prospects. Additionally, manufacturers were more likely than services firms to expect lower revenue, employment, spending, and price growth in 2024 than they experienced before COVID-19.
Discussion Paper
Firms' Employment and Wage Outlook Going Into 2025
Every November, the Richmond Fed asks businesses a series of questions about their expectations for hiring, wage adjustments, and other employment-related topics. This year, in addition to the usual set of questions, we asked firms if they have reduced the size of their workforce over the past three months and what workforce decisions they would make if business conditions deteriorated in the next six months.Consistent with past results, most responding businesses expect to maintain or increase employee headcount over the next 12 months. However, there were some shifts in responses compared ...
Discussion Paper
Student Parents: The Power of Wraparound Supports
Many community college students juggle work and family responsibilities alongside their academic pursuits. Wraparound services — such as transportation assistance, child care, mental health counseling and housing — help students meet their non-academic needs, which improves colleges' retention and completion rates. These services also attract adult learners, a key population of community college students.As we have written about previously, funding wraparound services is complicated. Community colleges rely heavily on local, state, and federal funding for their academic programs, but this ...
Discussion Paper
Are Labor Shortages in Small Cities and Rural Areas Worse Than Urban Ones?
In the past, the Richmond Fed has reported about the difficulty of businesses finding workers with the right skills. In conversations with business leaders across the Fifth District, we have heard about labor availability challenges across all geographies: in large urban centers, small cities, and rural areas. This post examines how labor availability differs between small cities and rural areas versus large urban centers. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic made it harder for firms in small cities and rural areas to find workers compared to firms in urban areas. Perhaps because of the ...
Discussion Paper
A New Endeavor: Introducing the Fifth District Survey of Community College Outcomes
Community colleges play a major role in workforce and economic development in communities across the Fifth District. Their responsibility for educating and connecting individuals to jobs means that understanding their outcomes is important to how we think about our best path to maximum employment and sustainable economic growth.