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Journal Article
The practice of central banking in other industrialized countries
Central banks in larger industrialized countries increasingly favor market operations, the buying and selling of securities, over standing facilities, such as lending and deposit facilities, in conducting their monetary policies. In their market operations, foreign central banks most commonly trade securities issued or guaranteed by their governments and repurchase agreements that are backed by a variety of assets, including private securities and securities denominated in foreign currencies. Some also trade in securities that are issued by other governments or private securities that are ...
Journal Article
Has the stock market become too narrow?
The price of equity has soared during the past five years, stoking concerns that stocks' prices might have risen too far, too fast. These concerns became more pressing as the values of equities rose much more rapidly than earnings during 1998 and early 1999, lifting stocks' prices to record highs relative to their earnings. Although many indexes of stocks' prices continued to rise sharply in 1998 and 1999, fewer stocks contributed to this performance. The market became more narrow as the running count of stocks whose prices were rising fell behind that for stocks whose prices were dropping. ; ...
Journal Article
A panel study of investment: sales, cash flow, the cost of capital, and leverage
This article compares the investment spending for each of 396 corporations during the late 1980s and early 1990s to projections of their spending derived from several basic models of investment. According to these models, capital spending, on average, adheres closely to output, profits, and the cost of capital. The pattern of average forecast errors derived from the statistical models does not correspond very closely to measures of indebtedness, liquidity, size, or type of business. It is not surprising that these variables should influence capital spending so little, once the general ...
Journal Article
The capitalization and portfolio risk of insurance companies
The strategies of financial intermediaries in the United States presumed a stability of interest rates that began to break down in the late 1960s. Not only did rising interest rates during the past two decades tend to depress the value of the assets of all intermediaries, they also fostered competition among intermediaries as all sought new opportunities for profit. In order to cope, many financial institutions assumed new bets by "reaching" for riskier assets offering higher yields or by operating with less capital per dollar of assets. To varying degrees, many insurance companies have ...
Journal Article
How humans behave: implications for economics and economic policy
Economic policymakers attempt to improve the welfare of their citizens, based on assumptions about how people think, feel, and behave, and on what they view as welfare-improving. Economists usually describe economic agents as fully informed and model them as striving to maximize a set of stable preferences. While these assumptions provide a simple framework for analyzing economic activity, actual human behavior has proved more complex. As a result, economists have started looking to psychologists and others who study human behavior for guidance on the decision-making process, the roles of ...
Working Paper
Tobin's Q, economic rents, and the optimal stock of capital
Within optimal investment programs, the accumulation of capital is a stable function of marginal q. Much of the interest in q, however, derives from its potential to reflect the demand for capital when the optimal program changes. If the marginal return on capital diminishes as capital increases, the correspondence between marginal q and the optimal stock of capital can shift whenever investors alter their assessments of prospective economic rents. At such times, marginal q even could rise as the optimal stock of capital falls. In general, robust investment functions express optimal ...
Journal Article
The roles of debt and equity in financing corporate investments
Journal Article
Are stocks overvalued?
By most standards, the price of equities in the United States has risen remarkably rapidly during the last 15 years. Since 1994 alone, the Standard & Poor's index of 500 stock prices has doubled. Although the rapid growth of corporations' profits has propelled the price of their stock, shareholders also are willing to pay a greater price per dollar of their companies' profits, and the valuation of corporations' earnings is now nearly as high as it has been since World War II. For the moment, the value of equity may rest on the growth of earnings, but in the longer run the price of stocks ...