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Working Paper
Alternative Scenarios at the Federal Reserve from 1968 to 2020: Data, Interpretation, and Evaluation
We comprehensively document 1,265 Federal Reserve staff alternative scenarios presented to the Federal Open Market Committee in publicly released materials from 1968 to 2020. Scenarios grew in frequency and sophistication, typically spanning a range of outcomes around the baseline. We construct a taxonomy with six categories: aggregate demand, aggregate supply, external risks, financial conditions, fiscal policy, and expectation shifts. Staff qualitative risk assessments complemented the scenario composition. Comparing scenario forecasts to realized outcomes, the most accurate scenarios often ...
Discussion Paper
The 104th Anniversary of the Federal Reserve's Oldest Data Collection
The Federal Reserve's oldest data collection, designed to gather weekly information about commercial banks' balance sheets, will turn 104 years old this year. Initiated in December 1917 in response to World War I, this voluntary collection currently underlies the Board's H.8 statistical release, Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States. This Note describes the origins of this collection, some highlights regarding its evolution, and how the data are used today.