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Monetary Policy in Time of Pandemic
Some monetary policy strategies have greater potential than others to mitigate pandemic-related financial strains.
Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index Gives Insight into COVID-19’s Economic Impact
To gain insight into the economic impact of the pandemic, we developed an index of mobility and engagement, based on geolocation data collected from a large sample of mobile devices.
Has U.S. Monetary Policy Gone Off Track?
The actions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) can be explained by the committee’s pursuit of full employment and price stability.
Room to Grow? Inflation and Labor Market Slack
Compared with the usual ex-food-and-energy measure, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate sends a clearer, more reliable signal about whether cyclical inflation pressures are building.
Which Core to Believe? Trimmed Mean Versus Ex-Food-and-Energy Inflation
Twice since 2014, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation—inflation excluding food and energy—decelerated sharply, only to ultimately reverse course.
Inverted Yield Curve (Nearly Always) Signals Tight Monetary Policy, Rising Unemployment
With long-term interest rates falling and short-term rates rising, there has been increasing talk of a possible yield-curve inversion and speculation about what an inversion might mean for the U.S. economy.
What the Trimmed Mean Says About Future Inflation: Broadening Price Pressures Ahead
As we look ahead to the rest of this year and into 2022, we expect that even as some of the extreme price increases responsible for the recent surge in headline inflation fade, a broader swath of goods and services will show meaningful price increases.
Nominal GDP Outlook Suggests It's Time to End Monetary Accommodation
We argue that the policy response to COVID-19 has been broadly on track to date but that continued monetary accommodation (lowering interest rates or purchasing assets) risks fueling excessive inflation.
Journal Article
Navigating by the Stars: The Natural Rate as Economic Forecasting Tool
Fed policymakers must assess the stance of monetary policy each time they decide whether the target federal funds rate should be changed. Several different benchmark, or ?natural,? interest rates have been suggested for this purpose. The gap between the target funds rate and the natural rate should, in principle, help forecast real economic activity and inflation.
Journal Article
High unemployment points to below-target (but still stable) inflation
Households and businesses are generally more interested in where prices are headed than in where they have been.