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Discussion Paper
Falling Oil Prices and Global Saving
Klitgaard, Thomas; Russo, Patrick (2015-06-24)
The rise in oil prices from near $30 per barrel in 2000 to around $110 per barrel in mid-2014 was a dramatic reallocation of global income to oil producers. So what did oil producers do with this bounty? Trade data show that they spent about half of the increase in total export revenues on imports and the other half to buy foreign assets. The drop in oil prices will unwind this process. Oil-importing countries will gain from lower oil bills, but they will also see a decline in their exports to oil-producing countries and in purchases of their assets by investors in these countries. Indeed, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150624

Discussion Paper
The End of China's Export Juggernaut
Wheeler, Harry; Klitgaard, Thomas (2017-04-12)
China has been an exporting juggernaut for decades. In the United States, this has meant a dramatic increase in China’s share of imports and a ballooning bilateral trade deficit. Gaining sales in the United States at the expense of other countries, Chinese goods rose from only 2 percent of U.S. non-oil imports in 1990 to 8 percent in 2000 and 17 percent in 2010. But these steady gains in U.S. import share have stopped in recent years, with China even losing ground to other countries in some categories of goods. One explanation for this shift is that Chinese firms now have to directly ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20170412

Discussion Paper
Does a Data Quirk Inflate China’s Travel Services Deficit?
Klitgaard, Thomas; Wong, Anna; Higgins, Matthew (2019-08-07)
Chinese residents are increasingly traveling to see the rest of the world, logging a total of 162 million foreign visits in 2018, up from 57 million in 2010. Increased travel spending by Chinese residents is acting to reduce the country's trade surplus because such spending is counted as a services import. However, there appears to be a quirk in the Chinese data that results in a significant understatement of the offsetting spending by visitors to China (a services export). According to other Chinese data, this understatement totaled $85 billion in 2018. If so, China's deficit in travel ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190807

Discussion Paper
Who Pays the Tax on Imports from China?
Nattinger, Michael; Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2019-11-25)
Tariffs are a form of taxation. Indeed, before the 1920s, tariffs (or customs duties) were typically the largest source of funding for the U.S. government. Of little interest for decades, tariffs are again becoming relevant, given the substantial increase in the rates charged on imports from China. U.S. businesses and consumers are shielded from the higher tariffs to the extent that Chinese firms lower the dollar prices they charge. U.S. import price data, however, indicate that prices on goods from China have so far not fallen. As a result, U.S. wholesalers, retailers, manufacturers, and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191125

Discussion Paper
The Perplexing Co-Movement of the Dollar and Oil Prices
Klitgaard, Thomas; Wang, Linda; Pesenti, Paolo (2019-01-09)
Oil prices and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the euro have often moved together over the past decade or so, but it is not at all clear why they should. The standard interpretation of oil price movements as a response to global oil supply and demand shifts makes it unlikely that the correlation stems from the dollar’s effect on oil prices. In addition, the notorious difficulty in predicting currency moves makes it hard to believe that oil prices dictate the dollar’s value. Improbability aside, however, in this blog post we document the tendency for the value of the dollar to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190109

Journal Article
Are markets really efficient?
Klitgaard, Thomas (1983)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Live long and prosper: challenges ahead for an aging population
Groshen, Erica L.; Klitgaard, Thomas (2002-02)
Over the next thirty years, the percentage of people who are 65 and over will grow rapidly while the percentage of people in their working years will decline. This shift in the age distribution of the population will put enormous pressure on social security systems in the United States, Germany, and Japan as the number of workers whose payroll taxes fund each retiree drops sharply.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 8 , Issue Feb

Journal Article
Year of reckoning
Klitgaard, Thomas; Bennett, Barbara (1983)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Discussion Paper
What Tracks Commodity Prices?
Wheeler, Harry; Klitgaard, Thomas (2016-03-21)
Various news reports have asserted that the slowdown in China was a key factor driving down commodity prices in 2015. It is true that China’s growth eased last year and, owing to its manufacturing-intensive economy, that slackening could reasonably have had repercussions for commodity prices. Still, growth in Japan and Europe accelerated in 2015, with the net result that global growth was fairly steady last year, casting doubt on the China slowdown explanation. An alternative story relies on the strong correlation between the dollar and commodity prices over time. A simple regression shows ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160321

Discussion Paper
Is the United States Relying on Foreign Investors to Finance Its Bigger Budget Deficit?
Klitgaard, Thomas (2021-05-21)
The fiscal packages passed in 2020 and 2021 to help the economy cope with the pandemic caused a dramatic increase in federal government borrowing. One might have expected that foreign investors were important buyers of this new debt, but that was not the case. They were instead net sellers of Treasury securities. Still, the amount of money flowing into the United States increased last year, which helped fund the government’s borrowing, if only indirectly. The upturn in inflows, though, was quite modest as a surge in domestic personal saving largely covered the government’s heightened ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210521

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