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Journal Article
Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure
Owyang, Michael T.; Jackson, Laura E.; Kliesen, Kevin L. (2015)
Assessing inflation?s likely path matters to policymakers and those in financial markets.
Economic Synopses , Issue 25

Journal Article
Living Standards in St. Louis and the Eighth Federal Reserve District: Let’s Get Real
Gascon, Charles S.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Coughlin, Cletus C. (2017)
Recently, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has developed the Regional Price Parities (RPPs), spatial price indexes that allow for comparison of cost of living differences across various geographic areas. By construction, RPPs compare the average price level for a region with the national average. Accordingly, unlike traditional, temporal price indexes, RPPs can be used to adjust nominal incomes for cost of living differences, thereby allowing for more accurate comparison of living standards across geographic areas. When adjusting incomes in this manner, the authors find that, despite ...
Review , Volume 99 , Issue 4 , Pages 377-394

Journal Article
How well do initial claims forecast employment growth over the business cycle and over time?
Kliesen, Kevin L.; Wheelock, David C. (2012)
Initial claims may now be useful for forecasting employment growth during periods of increasing economic activity.>
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
A recipe for monetary policy credibility.
Kliesen, Kevin L. (1996-10)
Concocting a credible monetary policy is far from easy, especially with the number of ingredients there are to choose from.
The Regional Economist , Issue Oct , Pages 10-11

Journal Article
Commodity price indexes: can they predict inflation?
Kliesen, Kevin L. (1994-07)
The Regional Economist , Issue Jul , Pages 10-11

Journal Article
Momentum Appears to Have Swung Upward for Economy
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2017)
Following a rather tepid showing in the first quarter of 2017, the U.S. economy expanded at a modestly faster rate of growth in the second quarter. Although data indicated a springtime lull in housing construction and slower truck and auto sales, these slowdowns are likely temporary in view of other developments.
The Regional Economist , Volume 25 , Issue 3

Journal Article
Measuring financial market stress
Kliesen, Kevin L.; Smith, Douglas C. (2010)
Although the St. Louis Financial Stress Index suggests the level of financial stress in the markets has declined significantly since September 2008, the stress level remains modestly higher than average.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Two Percent Inflation Over the Next Year: Should You Take the Over or the Under?
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2021-05-19)
According to the St. Louis Fed’s price pressures measure, there’s a 61 percent probability that inflation will average more than 2.5 percent over the next 12 months.
Economic Synopses , Issue 11 , Pages 1-3

Working Paper
Risk Management in Monetary Policymaking: The 1994-95 Fed Tightening Episode
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2023-12)
The 1994-95 Fed tightening episode was one of the most notable in the Fed’s history. First, the FOMC raised the policy rate by 300 basis points in a year, even though headline and core inflation were trending lower prior to the liftoff that occurred in February 1994. Second, the Fed’s actions caught the Treasury market by surprise, triggering a sharp decline in long-term bond prices. Third, Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and the Federal Open Market Committee were regularly surprised that inflation was not rising by more than the forecasts suggested during the episode. This article presents some ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-030

Journal Article
Economy Improves Quickly but Inflation Increases
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2021-05-24)
The U.S. economy is strengthening quickly, although inflation is rising and a shortage of semiconductor chips has created a temporary headwind.
The Regional Economist

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