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Journal Article
Slower GDP Growth and Falling Inflation in U.S. Economic Outlook for 2024
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2023-11-28)
The U.S. macroeconomic outlook calls for real GDP growth to slow sharply but remain positive in 2024 and for inflation pressures to continue easing.
The Regional Economist

Journal Article
Using Brent and WTI oil prices to predict gasoline prices
Kliesen, Kevin L.; Owyang, Michael T. (2011)
The spot prices of West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil recently diverged. If this divergence persists, economists and energy analysts may want to focus on Brent prices when predicting the level of gasoline prices.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Signals Are Mixed, but Optimism Is on the Rise
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2017)
Most forecasters expect this year to bring a continuation of modest growth, low inflation and mostly healthy labor markets. Optimism appears brighter in financial markets and among consumers and businesses.
The Regional Economist , Volume 25 , Issue 1

Working Paper
Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2008)
Recently, some analysts and economists had warned that the U.S. economy faces a much higher risk of falling into a recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and they have since climbed even further. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, there is a high probability that a recession in the United States began in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the U.S. economy has become much less sensitive to large ...
Working Papers , Paper 2008-009

Working Paper
Managing a New Policy Framework: Paul Volcker, the St. Louis Fed, and the 1979-82 War on Inflation
Wheelock, David C.; Kliesen, Kevin L. (2020-07-23)
In October 1979, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker persuaded his FOMC colleagues to adopt a new policy framework that i) accepted responsibility for controlling inflation and ii) implemented new operating procedures to control the growth of monetary aggregates in an effort to restore price stability. These moves were strongly supported by monetarist-oriented economists, including the leadership and staff of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The next three years saw inflation peak and then fall sharply, but also two recessions and considerable volatility in interest rates and money ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-022

Employment Trends before and after Business Expansion Peaks
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2024-08-20)
Nonfarm payroll and civilian employment are two measures of the U.S. labor market. How do they behave in the months leading up to a business expansion peak?
On the Economy

Using Data to Show When Recessions End
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2020-11-17)
Could weekly data—such as the Weekly Economic Index—be used in calculating when recessions end, in addition to monthly and quarterly data?
On the Economy

Journal Article
The Mechanics of Fed Balance Sheet Normalization
Estenssoro, Amalia; Kliesen, Kevin L. (2023-08-23)
As the Fed continues to normalize its balance sheet, lessons from past tightening episodes and projections of possible futures may help achieve the optimal amount of reserves in the banking system and avoid undo financial stress.
Economic Synopses , Issue 18 , Pages 3 pages

Journal Article
The federal debt: too little revenue or too much spending
Thornton, Daniel L.; Kliesen, Kevin L. (2011)
The rise in the national debt... is entirely a consequence of the federal government?s increase of expenditures without an offsetting increase in revenues.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Optimism Prevails as GDP Snaps Back from Q1 Decline
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2014-10)
The Regional Economist

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