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Working Paper
Price Setting and Volatility: Evidence from Oil Price Volatility Shocks
How do changes in aggregate volatility alter the impulse response of output to monetary policy? To analyze this question, I study whether individual prices in Producer Price Index micro data are more likely to change and to move in the same direction when aggregate volatility is high, which would increase aggregate price exibility and reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy. Taking advantage of plausibly exogenous oil price volatility shocks and heterogeneity in oil usage across industries, I find that price changes are more dispersed and less frequent, implying that prices are less ...
Discussion Paper
Second-Round Effects of Oil Prices on Inflation in the Advanced Foreign Economies
The surge in oil prices in the wake of the post-COVID-19 economic rebound and Russia's invasion of Ukraine exerted significant upward pressure on consumer price inflation around the world. As seen in the left panel of Figure 1, Brent crude oil prices soared to nearly $130 a barrel in March 2022 and remained elevated through June, before only slowly retracing the gains.
Working Paper
The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Micro Pricing Moments
This paper evaluates the informativeness of eight micro pricing moments for monetary non-neutrality. Frequency of price changes is the only robustly informative moment. The ratio of kurtosis over frequency is significant only because of frequency, and insignificant when non-pricing moments are included. Non-pricing moments are additionally informative about monetary non-neutrality, indicating potential omitted variable bias and the inability of pricing moments to serve as sufficient statistics. In contrast to existing theoretical work, this ratio has an ambiguous relationship with monetary ...