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Working Paper
Indeterminacy and investment adjustment costs
It is widely known that a neoclassical growth model with sufficient increasing returns to production may feature an indeterminate steady state. This note shows how investment adjustment costs increase the degree of increasing returns required for indeterminacy to arise. We also argue that sector-specific externalities are observationally equivalent to negative adjustment costs. It is widely known that a neoclassical growth model with sufficient increasing returns to production may feature an indeterminate steady state. This note shows how investment adjustment costs increase the degree of ...
Working Paper
Inflation targeting and nominal income growth targeting: when and why are they suboptimal?
We derive optimal monetary stabilization rules and compare them to simple rules under both full and partial information. The nominal interest rate is the instrument of monetary policy. Special attention is devoted to inflation targeting and nominal-income-growth targeting.> We use an optimizing-agent model of a closed economy which features monopolistic competition in both product and labor markets. A stabilization problem exists because there are one-period nominal contracts, either for wages alone or for both wages and prices, and three shocks that are unknown when contracts are signed. In ...
Working Paper
Investment-specific and multifactor productivity in multi-sector open economies: data and analysis
In the last half of the 1990s, labor productivity growth rose in the U.S. and fell almost everywhere in Europe. We document changes in both capital deepening and multifactor productivity (MFP) growth in both the information and communication technology (ICT) and non-ICT sectors. We view MFP growth in the ICT sector as investment-specific productivity (ISP) growth. We perform simulations suggested by the data using a two-country DGE model with traded and nontraded goods. For ISP, we consider level increases and persistent growth rate increases that are symmetric across countries and allow for ...
Working Paper
Monetary policy in a stochastic equilibrium model with real and nominal rigidities
A dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model with real and nominal rigidities succeeds in capturing some key nominal features of U.S. business cycles. Additive technology shocks, as well as multiplicative shocks, are introduced. Monetary policy is specified following the developments in the structural vector autoregression (VAR) literature. Interaction between real and nominal rigidities is essential to reproduce the liquidity effect of monetary policy. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood on U.S. data, and its fit is comparable to that of an unrestricted first-order VAR. ...
Working Paper
Three sources of increasing returns to scale
This paper reviews various types of increasing returns from a critical perspective. Increasing returns have been introduced in a monopolistic-competition model both at the firm level and at the aggregate level. We show that the degree of the aggregate returns to scale is a linear combination of three return parameters, with the weights determined by the specification of a zero-profit condition. Identification issues are discussed with an emphasis on recent macro literature. We argue that disaggregate data give information on the market structure rather than the technology. Welfare ...
Working Paper
Diagnosing and treating bifurcations in perturbation analysis of dynamic macro models
In perturbation analysis of nonlinear dynamic systems, the presence of a bifurcation implies that the first-order behavior of the economy cannot be characterized solely in terms of the first-order derivatives of the model equations. In this paper, we use two simple examples to illustrate how to detect the existence of a bifurcation. Following the general approach of Judd (1998), we then show how to apply l'Hospital's rule to characterize the solution of each model in terms of its higher-order derivatives. We also show that in some cases the bifurcation can be eliminated through ...
Working Paper
Welfare effects of tax policy in open economies: stabilization and cooperation
This paper studies an international tax policy design problem by employing a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets. We investigate the possibility of welfare improving active tax policies, in particular capital and labor income tax, under the non-cooperative Nash equilibrium and the cooperative equilibrium. Unlike the conventional wisdom regarding stabilization policies, optimal tax policies in our economy are procyclical. Relative to the non-cooperative setting, international tax policy cooperation requires more active tax policies (about two times) and ...
Working Paper
Patience, persistence and welfare costs of incomplete markets in open economies
In this paper, we investigate the welfare implications of alternative financial market structures in a two-country endowment economy model. In particular, we obtain an analytic expression for the expected lifetime utility of the representative household when sovereign bonds are the only internationally traded asset, and we compare this welfare level with that obtained under complete asset markets. The welfare cost of incomplete markets is negligible if agents are very patient and shocks are not very persistent, but this cost is dramatically larger if agents are relatively impatient and shocks ...
Working Paper
Exact utilities under alternative monetary rules in a simple macro model with optimizing agents
We construct an optimizing-agent model of a closed economy which is simple enough that we can use it to make exact utility calculations. There is a stabilization problem because there are one-period nominal contracts for wages, or prices, or both and shocks that are unknown at the time when contracts are signed. We evaluate alternative monetary policy rules using the utility function of the representative agent. Fully optimal policy can attain the Pareto-optimal equilibrium. Fully optimal policy is contrasted with both 'naive' and 'sophisticated' simple rules that involve, respectively, ...
Working Paper
Adjustment costs of investment in general equilibrium: analytic results
This paper formulates and compares various specifications of investment adjustment costs in a simple dynamic general-equilibrium model and studies their implications by showing some analytic results. One way to introduce costs is to incorporate them as a constant elasticity of substitution between investment and capital in the capital accumulation equation. Another way is as a nonlinear transformation between consumption and investment in the national income identity. We observe that there is a problem in identifying the two types of adjustment costs and show how to solve the problem. The ...