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Working Paper
The choice of a monetary policy reaction function in a simple optimizing model
Monetary policy reaction functions are compared in a simple optimizing model with one-period nominal stickiness, i.i.d. shocks, and no capital accumulation. The interest rate is the instrument and is either kept constant, "interest rate targeting" for short, or used in targeting one of the following: money, the price level, output, nominal income (output), money growth, inflation, and the sum of inflation and output. There are three varieties of one-period nominal stickiness---wage stickiness, wage and price stickiness, and price stickiness---and three kinds of shocks---money demand shocks, ...
Working Paper
Diagnosing and treating bifurcations in perturbation analysis of dynamic macro models
In perturbation analysis of nonlinear dynamic systems, the presence of a bifurcation implies that the first-order behavior of the economy cannot be characterized solely in terms of the first-order derivatives of the model equations. In this paper, we use two simple examples to illustrate how to detect the existence of a bifurcation. Following the general approach of Judd (1998), we then show how to apply l'Hospital's rule to characterize the solution of each model in terms of its higher-order derivatives. We also show that in some cases the bifurcation can be eliminated through ...
Working Paper
Exact utilities under alternative monetary rules in a simple macro model with optimizing agents
We construct an optimizing-agent model of a closed economy which is simple enough that we can use it to make exact utility calculations. There is a stabilization problem because there are one-period nominal contracts for wages, or prices, or both and shocks that are unknown at the time when contracts are signed. We evaluate alternative monetary policy rules using the utility function of the representative agent. Fully optimal policy can attain the Pareto-optimal equilibrium. Fully optimal policy is contrasted with both 'naive' and 'sophisticated' simple rules that involve, respectively, ...
Working Paper
Monetary policy in a stochastic equilibrium model with real and nominal rigidities
A dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model with real and nominal rigidities succeeds in capturing some key nominal features of U.S. business cycles. Additive technology shocks, as well as multiplicative shocks, are introduced. Monetary policy is specified following the developments in the structural vector autoregression (VAR) literature. Interaction between real and nominal rigidities is essential to reproduce the liquidity effect of monetary policy. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood on U.S. data, and its fit is comparable to that of an unrestricted first-order VAR. ...
Working Paper
Three sources of increasing returns to scale
This paper reviews various types of increasing returns from a critical perspective. Increasing returns have been introduced in a monopolistic-competition model both at the firm level and at the aggregate level. We show that the degree of the aggregate returns to scale is a linear combination of three return parameters, with the weights determined by the specification of a zero-profit condition. Identification issues are discussed with an emphasis on recent macro literature. We argue that disaggregate data give information on the market structure rather than the technology. Welfare ...
Working Paper
Monetary policy and the housing bubble
We examine the role of monetary policy in the housing bubble. Our review examines the setting of monetary policy in the middle of this decade, the impetus from monetary policy to the housing market, and other factors that may have contributed to the run-up, and subsequent collapse, in house prices.
Working Paper
Welfare effects of tax policy in open economies: stabilization and cooperation
This paper studies an international tax policy design problem by employing a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets. We investigate the possibility of welfare improving active tax policies, in particular capital and labor income tax, under the non-cooperative Nash equilibrium and the cooperative equilibrium. Unlike the conventional wisdom regarding stabilization policies, optimal tax policies in our economy are procyclical. Relative to the non-cooperative setting, international tax policy cooperation requires more active tax policies (about two times) and ...
Working Paper
Two pitfalls of linearization methods
This paper illustrates two types of pitfalls in using linearization methods. First, if constraints are linearized before deriving optimality conditions, the derived conditions are not correct up to first order. Second, even when the behavior of the economy is correct to the first order, applying this behavior to welfare implications may lead to incorrect results.
Working Paper
Designing a simple loss function for the Fed: does the dual mandate make sense?
Variable and high rates of price inflation in the 1970s and 1980s led many countries to delegate the conduct of monetary policy to "instrument-independent" central banks and to give their central banks a clear mandate to pursue price stability and instrument independence to achieve it. Advances in academic research supported a strong focus on price stability as a means to enhance the independence and credibility of monetary policymakers. An overwhelming majority of these central banks also adopted an explicit inflation target to further strengthen credibility and facilitate accountability. ...
Working Paper
Inflation targeting and nominal income growth targeting: when and why are they suboptimal?
We derive optimal monetary stabilization rules and compare them to simple rules under both full and partial information. The nominal interest rate is the instrument of monetary policy. Special attention is devoted to inflation targeting and nominal-income-growth targeting.> We use an optimizing-agent model of a closed economy which features monopolistic competition in both product and labor markets. A stabilization problem exists because there are one-period nominal contracts, either for wages alone or for both wages and prices, and three shocks that are unknown when contracts are signed. In ...