Journal Article
Coming to America: covered bonds?
Juvenal, Luciana; Fawley, Brett W. (2012)
Ultimately, covered bonds and ABS are complements, not substitutes.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
When oil prices jump, is speculation to blame?
Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan; Fawley, Brett W. (2012-04)
Whenever the price at the pump climbs week after week, people start pointing fingers at investment banks, hedge funds and other speculators. This article quantifies the role that speculation played in the rise of oil prices during the past decade.
The Regional Economist , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Capital controls by any other name
Juvenal, Luciana; Fawley, Brett W. (2011)
The embrace of ad hoc capital controls to address temporary market inefficiencies on a case-by-case basis, while pragmatic, perpetuates the view that each capital crisis is an isolated example of failed financial institutions.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Commodity price gains: speculation vs. fundamentals
Juvenal, Luciana; Fawley, Brett W. (2011-07)
Commodities of all sorts have risen in price over the past few years. Some say that the prices reflect a bubble, driven by low interest rates and excessive speculation. Others say the price gains can be fully explained by supply and demand.
The Regional Economist , Issue July , Pages 4-9

Journal Article
Quantitative easing: lessons we've learned
Juvenal, Luciana; Fawley, Brett W. (2012-07)
The Regional Economist , Issue Jul

Journal Article
Japan reenters the foreign exchange market
Juvenal, Luciana; Fawley, Brett W. (2010)
From 1999 to 2004 Japan unilaterally sold a combined, and unprecedented, 500 billion dollars of yen.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Why health care matters and the current debt does not
Juvenal, Luciana; Fawley, Brett W. (2011-10)
All of the attention given to raising the debt ceiling this past summer might lead some to believe that spending by the federal government only recently became unsustainable. Hardly. We've been on this path a long time.
The Regional Economist , Issue Oct , Pages 4-5

Journal Article
Monetary policy and asset prices
Juvenal, Luciana; Fawley, Brett W. (2010)
The housing market crisis is the latest reminder that asset prices can and do run wild at rates capable of negative effects on real economic activity. Not surprisingly, this has reinvigorated debate over whether central banks should respond to asset price bubbles.
Economic Synopses

Working Paper
Export market diversification and productivity improvements: theory and evidence from Argentinean firms
Juvenal, Luciana; Monteiro, Paulo Santos (2013)
This paper examines the relationship between trade and investment in technology adoption when firms face demand uncertainty. Our model predicts that, for a given overall market size, exporting to several countries reduces firms' demand uncertainty and, hence, raises incentives to invest in productivity improvements. The effects of diversification are heterogeneous across firms: An additional foreign market matters more for firms exporting to fewer destinations. We test the proposed theory using a large sample of Argentinean manufacturing exporters. The predictions of the model find strong ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013-015

Working Paper
Pricing-to-market and business cycle synchronization
Juvenal, Luciana; Monteiro, Paulo Santos (2010)
There is substantial evidence that countries or regions with stronger trade linkages tend to have business cycles which are more synchronized. However, the standard international business cycle framework cannot replicate this finding. In this paper we study a multiple- country model of international trade with imperfect competition and variable markups and embed it into a real business cycle framework by including aggregate technology shocks and allowing for variable labor supply. The model is successful at replicating the empirical relation between trade and business cycle synchronization. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2010-038