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Journal Article
Money, credit, and M2
Journal Article
Seasonal revisions
Journal Article
Inflation goals and credibility
Conference Paper
Controlling inflation with an interest rate instrument
Journal Article
Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997
This paper estimates a simple model of the Federal Reserve's "reaction function" - that is, the relationship between economic developments and the fed's response to them. We focus on how this estimated reaction function has changed over time. Such changes are not surprising given compositional changes in the Federal Open Market Committee, and we consider three subsamples delineated by the terms of recent fed Chairmen. We find that the estimated reaction functions for each period vary in ways that seem broadly consistent with the success or failure during the period at controlling ...
Working Paper
The demand for money: where do we stand?
Journal Article
Downgrading M1
Journal Article
The output-inflation trade-off in the United States: has it changed since the late 1970s?
In recent years, the Federal Reserve has become more explicit in stating a goal of gradually reducing inflation to near zero rtes. An important consideration in seeking lower inflation is the transition cost (lost output and employment) incurred in the process. In this paper we ask whether the output-inflation trade-off in the U.S. is any more favorable now than it was in the high-inflation environment of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Our empirical estimates suggest that this trade-off is about the same as it was in the earlier period. In light of these results, we consider ways in ...