Search Results
Journal Article
Ending the lag
Journal Article
The goals of U.S. monetary policy
Journal Article
M1 and monetary policy
Journal Article
Describing Fed behavior
Journal Article
Has the Fed gotten tougher on inflation?
Conference Paper
Controlling inflation with an interest rate instrument
Working Paper
Central bank secrecy and money surprises: international evidence
The information value of central bank announcements of projected future money growth is shown to depend both on the accuracy of the announcements and the extent to which the announcements themselves are anticipated by the public. We construct a new data set on internal Federal Reserve money projections. These projections, which are kept secret while they are in force, are comparable in many important respects with publicly announced Bank of Japan money projections. Using a derivative of the law of iterated projections, we estimate the information value of disclosure on the part of the Bank ...
Journal Article
Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997
This paper estimates a simple model of the Federal Reserve's "reaction function" - that is, the relationship between economic developments and the fed's response to them. We focus on how this estimated reaction function has changed over time. Such changes are not surprising given compositional changes in the Federal Open Market Committee, and we consider three subsamples delineated by the terms of recent fed Chairmen. We find that the estimated reaction functions for each period vary in ways that seem broadly consistent with the success or failure during the period at controlling ...
Journal Article
The output-inflation trade-off in the United States: has it changed since the late 1970s?
In recent years, the Federal Reserve has become more explicit in stating a goal of gradually reducing inflation to near zero rtes. An important consideration in seeking lower inflation is the transition cost (lost output and employment) incurred in the process. In this paper we ask whether the output-inflation trade-off in the U.S. is any more favorable now than it was in the high-inflation environment of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Our empirical estimates suggest that this trade-off is about the same as it was in the earlier period. In light of these results, we consider ways in ...