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Journal Article
The economic return to health expenditures
Conference Paper
The value of life and the rise in health spending
Health care extends life. Over the past half century, Americans spent a rising share of total economic resources on health and enjoyed substantially longer lives as a result. Debate on health policy often focuses on limiting the growth of health spending. We investigate an issue central to this debate: Is the growth of health spending the rational response to changing economic conditions - notably the growth of income per person? We develop a model based on standard economic assumptions and argue that this is indeed the case. Standard preferences - of the kind used widely in economics to ...
Working Paper
Measuring the social return to R&D
A large, empirical literature reports estimates of the rate of return to R&D ranging from 30 percent to over 100 percent, supporting the notion that there is too little private investment in research. This conclusion is challenged by the new growth theory. We derive analytically the relationship between the social rate of return to R&D and the coefficient estimates of the empirical literature. We show that these estimates represent a lower bound on the true social rate of return. Using a conservative estimate of the rate of return to R&D of about 30 percent, optimal R&D investment is at least ...
Journal Article
The fiscal problem of the 21st century
Conference Paper
Jackson Hole 2023 - Panel - Structural Constraints on Growth
Journal Article
Trading Off Consumption and COVID-19 Deaths
This note develops a framework for thinking about the following question: What is the maximum amount of consumption that a utilitarian welfare function would be willing to trade off to avoid the deaths associated with COVID-19? The answer depends crucially on the mortality rate associated with the coronavirus. If the mortality rate averages 0.81%, as projected in one prominent study, our answer is 41% of one year's consumption. If the mortality rate instead averages 0.44% across age groups, as suggested by a recent seroprevalence study, our answer is 28%.
Journal Article
Using chain-weighted NIPA data
Conference Paper
Growth, capital shares, and a new perspective on production functions
Standard growth theory implies that steady-state growth in the presence of exponential declines in the prices of computers and other capital equipment requires a Cobb-Douglas production function. Conventional wisdom holds that capital shares are relatively constant, so that the Cobb-Douglas approach might be a good way to model growth. Unfortunately, this conventional wisdom is misguided. Capital shares exhibit substantial trends and fluctuations in many countries and in many industries. Taken together, these facts represent a puzzle for growth theory. This paper resolves the puzzle by (a) ...