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Author:Hutchison, Michael M. 

Working Paper
The illusive quest: do international capital controls contribute to currency stability?

We investigate the effectiveness of capital controls in insulating economies from currency crises, focusing in particular on both direct and indirect effects of capital controls and how these relationships may have changed over time in response to global financial liberalization and the greater mobility of international capital. We predict the likelihood of currency crises using standard macroeconomic variables and a probit equation estimation methodology with random effects. We employ a comprehensive panel data set comprised of 69 emerging market and developing economies over 1975?2004. Both ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2010-15

Working Paper
Is pegging the exchange rate a cure for inflation? East Asian experiences

A common argument for pegging the exchange rate is that it enforces discipline on domestic monetary policy, thus stabilizing inflation expectations. This paper argues that this reasoning does not necessarily apply to East Asia, as the nominal exchange rate pegging policies of these economies are not the explanation for their low inflation. On the contrary, since 1985, those economies whose currencies have appreciated less against the U.S. dollar have tended to experience higher inflation. Factors other than pegging, such as rapid growth, sustainable budget deficits, and relative openness ...
Pacific Basin Working Paper Series , Paper 95-08

Journal Article
Is official foreign exchange intervention effective?

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
The real interest rate/budget deficit link: international evidence 1973- 82

Economic Review , Issue Fall , Pages 26-35

Working Paper
Fiscal policy in monetary unions: implications for Europe

This paper analyzes how the feasible mix of government expenditure and financing arrangements may change with the establishment of a monetary union such as that planned by members of the European Community. We find that a monetary union reduces the feasible divergence across countries in their present discounted levels of fiscal spending. Wide differences across countries in their present and future time pattern of spending are still possible, however. Examination of the empirical evidence suggests that the movement towards greater exchange rate fixity associated with the EMS and ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 92-02

Conference Paper
Financial effects of budget deficits in the Pacific Basin

Proceedings , Issue Dec , Pages 311-334

Journal Article
Exchange rates and monetary policy

Economic Review , Issue Spr , Pages 17-29

Conference Paper
Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?

Proceedings , Issue Sep

Conference Paper
Monetary policy, intervention, and exchange rates in Japan

Proceedings

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