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Journal Article
Interdependence: U.S. and Japanese real interest rates
Working Paper
Monetary control, interest rates and exchange rates: the case of Japan, 1973-1986
This paper analyzes the extent to which Japan's success at maintaining a low and stable inflation rate since the mid-1970s, while avoiding a major recession, is attributable to a switch in monetary control procedures by the Bank of Japan toward a so-called "money focused" monetary policy. Through estimation of an explicit Bank of Japan (BoJ) reaction function and using the vector autoregressions methodology, we find that little of the variation in the BoJ operating instrument is associated with an attempt to maintain money aggregates growth along a predetermined path. We do find, however, ...
Working Paper
Central bank secrecy and money surprises: international evidence
The information value of central bank announcements of projected future money growth is shown to depend both on the accuracy of the announcements and the extent to which the announcements themselves are anticipated by the public. We construct a new data set on internal Federal Reserve money projections. These projections, which are kept secret while they are in force, are comparable in many important respects with publicly announced Bank of Japan money projections. Using a derivative of the law of iterated projections, we estimate the information value of disclosure on the part of the Bank ...
Journal Article
What makes a central bank credible?
Journal Article
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