Search Results
Journal Article
Early warning indicators of banking sector distress
Conference Paper
Financial effects of budget deficits in the Pacific Basin
Journal Article
Monetary policy in the Pacific Basin
Working Paper
Fiscal constraints and incentives with monetary coordination: implications for Europe 1992
This paper analyzes how the feasible mix of government expenditure and financing arrangements may change in a monetary union such as that presently under discussion for the European Community. The effect of this institutional change on the incentives facing fiscal policymakers in their budgetary decisions also is investigated. The framework of analysis is a two-country, two-period intertemporal framework with maximizing private and public sector behavior. We find that the range of feasible divergence in the present discounted value of fiscal spending is reduced in a monetary union, although ...
Journal Article
Deficits and financial change in the Pacific Basin
Conference Paper
Lessons from financial crisis: the Japanese case
Working Paper
Does exchange rate appreciation 'deindustrialize' the open economy? a critique of U.S. evidence
Since the fiscal expansion and real appreciation of the dollar in the early 1980s, widespread attention has focused on the so-called "deindustrialization" and "two-tiered" development of the U.S. economy. This view argues that exchange rate appreciation caused a major resource shift away from tradables production, such as manufactures, toward nontradables production in the economy. In this paper we take a critical look at this view. ; We argue that the association of a dollar appreciation with relative strength or weakness in the tradable goods sector depends on the particular shock ...
Working Paper
Currency Crises, Capital Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias
Are countries with unregulated capital flows more vulnerable to currency crises? Efforts to answer this question properly must control for "self selection" bias since countries with liberalized capital accounts may also have more sound economic policies and institutions that make them less likely to experience crises. We employ a matching and propensity score methodology to address this issue in a panel analysis of developing countries. Our results suggest that, after controlling for sample selection bias, countries with liberalized capital accounts experience a lower likelihood of currency ...