Search Results
Journal Article
Interdependence: U.S. and Japanese real interest rates
Working Paper
Currency Crises, Capital Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias
Are countries with unregulated capital flows more vulnerable to currency crises? Efforts to answer this question properly must control for "self selection" bias since countries with liberalized capital accounts may also have more sound economic policies and institutions that make them less likely to experience crises. We employ a matching and propensity score methodology to address this issue in a panel analysis of developing countries. Our results suggest that, after controlling for sample selection bias, countries with liberalized capital accounts experience a lower likelihood of currency ...
Journal Article
Financing current account deficits
Journal Article
The European currency crisis
Working Paper
The illusive quest: do international capital controls contribute to currency stability?
We investigate the effectiveness of capital controls in insulating economies from currency crises, focusing in particular on both direct and indirect effects of capital controls and how these relationships may have changed over time in response to global financial liberalization and the greater mobility of international capital. We predict the likelihood of currency crises using standard macroeconomic variables and a probit equation estimation methodology with random effects. We employ a comprehensive panel data set comprised of 69 emerging market and developing economies over 1975?2004. Both ...
Working Paper
Monetary \"targeting\" in Japan and the U.S.: which is more accurate?
This paper examines the issue of whether differences in money targeting or base-drift procedures between Japan and the U.S. are significant contributing factors to Japan's superior macroeconomic performance over the last decade, and concludes that these procedures probably are not important factors. ; We compare Bank of Japan (BoJ) money growth projections with Federal Reserve money targets. We show that BoJ projections are not comparable to annual money targets set by the Fed. We construct from past Records of Policy Actions of Federal Open Market Committee meetings a data set of Fed ...
Journal Article
Budget rules and monetary union in Europe
Working Paper
Macroeconomic effects of IMF-sponsored programs in Latin America: output costs, program recidivism and the vicious cycle of failed stabilizations
We investigate the effects of IMF stabilization programs, and the reasons behind the unusually high IMF activity and relatively low program completion rates in Latin America. We base our tests on a panel, and distinguish between IMF program approvals and completion. We find that Latin America has higher output costs of IMF programs (especially when completed), no improvement in the current account, and a much higher likelihood of program failure and recidivism than other regions. The common finding that entering into an IMF-supported program incurs real short-run costs on the economy is ...