Search Results
Working Paper
Coalitions, power, and the FOMC
The authors apply a notion of power, defined for coalitions, which is derived from the Shapley value. They calculate the power of coalitions within a 12-person committee meant to correspond to the FOMC.
Journal Article
Why intervention rarely works
Foreign-exchange-market intervention is generally ineffective when undertaken independent of monetary policy. But when undertaken as a goal of monetary policy, exchange-rate management can compromise price stability. This Economic Commentary explains the difficulties of implementing an intervention policy.
Journal Article
Central-bank intervention: recent literature, continuing controversy
A review of recent literature on central-bank intervention in exchange markets, finding some qualified support for the power of intervention to influence market expectations, but finding little evidence to support the interventionist policy the G-3 countries have conducted in recent years.
Journal Article
Monetary policy and real economic growth
An examination of the connections between monetary policy changes, shifts in aggregate spending, and adjustments to production, showing that although a central bank may periodically exploit the connection between short-term monetary expansions and real economic growth, frequent attempts may ultimately distort the allocation of resources from productive uses to protective enterprises and result in proportionally higher inflation.
Working Paper
Intervention as information: a survey
Research has generally failed to find reliable connections between official exchange-market interventions and exchange rates that are consistent with either a monetary or a portfolio-balance theory of exchange-rate determination. Recently economists have suggested that intervention might sometimes influence exchange rates through its effects on agents? expectations. This survey discusses newer research that analyzes informational aspects of intervention.
Working Paper
U.S. intervention during the Bretton Wood Era:1962-1973
By the early 1960s, outstanding U.S. dollar liabilities began to exceed the U.S. gold stock, suggesting that the United States could not completely maintain its pledge to convert dollars into gold at the official price. This raised uncertainty about the Bretton Woods parity grid, and speculation seemed to grow. In response, the Federal Reserve instituted a series of swap lines to provide central banks with cover for unwanted, but temporary accumulations of dollars and to provide foreign central banks with dollar funds to finance their own interventions. The Treasury also began intervening in ...
Journal Article
Dollarization and monetary sovereignty: the case of Argentina
In January, President Menim of Argentina proposed strengthening his country's commitment to monetary stability by replacing the peso with the U.S. dollar. Dollarization leaves Argentina without a lender of last resort, but the Federal Reserve's current operating procedure combines with existing Argentine arrangements to mitigate this drawback.
Journal Article
Global risks to U.S. monetary policy
We recently invited four international economists to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland to discuss global developments and to help us identify and understand the key international risks that these developments present for U.S. monetary policy. This Commentary develops a key macroeconomic concern that emerged from our conversations.
Discussion Paper
Walking on a fence: Brazils public-sector debt
Brazil is walking on a fence between sustainable and unsustainable public-debt dynamics. How it treads could affect not only its own economic prosperity but that of its neighbors, emerging markets in general, and U.S. financial institutions in particular. Relatively small improvements in Brazilian economic conditions and a continuation of that countrys recent fiscal improvements could push Brazil in the right direction, particularly if the dollar continues to depreciate.
Journal Article
Have international developments lowered the neutral rate?
One way to think about monetary policy is in terms of a neutral federal funds rate, one that exerts neither inflationary nor deflationary pressures. Recent declines in worldwide investment, coupled with the growing globalization of financial markets suggest that the neutral rate may be lower than the current stance of monetary policy and the stage of the business cycle may lead one to believe.