Working Paper
A dynamic model of export competition, policy coordination and simultaneous currency collapse
Kasa, Kenneth; Huh, Chan Guk (1997)
This paper offers a game-theoretic interpretation of the recent currency crisis in Asia. Specifically, we argue that the 'price wars during booms' logic of Rotemberg and Saloner (1986) can be used to explain the nearly simultaneous devaluation of several Asian currencies during the summer of 1997. The idea is as follows. Since each of these countries relies heavily on exports to the U.S. pressures for competitive devaluations naturally arise. ; We view the historical tendency of these countries to peg to the dollar as a way to avoid these pressures. However, it must be in the ...
Pacific Basin Working Paper Series , Paper 97-08

Working Paper
Forecasting industrial production using models with business cycle asymmetry
Huh, Chan Guk (1993)
This paper exploits business cycle asymmetry observed in data, namely, a systematic shift in the dynamic relationship between the output and the interest rate spread across expansionary and contractionary periods in forecasting monthly industrial production. A bivariate model of monthly industrial production and the spread between the 6-month commercial paper and the federal funds rates is used as an example to illustrate forecast exercise. This paper's method does not require a forecaster to make an exact ex-ante determination of turning points in the output series which is being forecasted. ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 93-12

Journal Article
Inflation targeting
Huh, Chan Guk (1997)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Recession probability indexes: a survey
Huh, Chan Guk (1991-10)
Economic Review , Issue Fall , Pages 31-40

Working Paper
Causality and correlations of output and nominal variables in a real business cycle model
Huh, Chan Guk (1992)
A dynamic general equilibrium economy in which output is exogenous with respect to money is calibrated and simulated following a procedure commonly used in real business cycle literature. It is then confronted with the key comovement patterns of output and nominal variables in the post-war U.S. time series data. The model economy performs well in matching key second moment patterns involving output, money and price. The model economy - with its embedded 'reverse causation' from output to money - also provides the means for carrying out a probabilistic appraisal of the observed money to output ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 92-03

Journal Article
Interest rate smoothing and inflation, then and now
Huh, Chan Guk (1995)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Interest rate spreads as indicators for monetary policy
Huh, Chan Guk (1993)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Output, money and price correlations in a real business cycle model
Huh, Chan Guk (1990)
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 90-02

Journal Article
Probability of recession
Huh, Chan Guk (1991)
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Measuring the cost of \\"financial repression\\"
Kim, Sun Bae; Huh, Chan Guk (1994)
FRBSF Economic Letter