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Working Paper
The United States as a heavily indebted country
According to data published by the Department of Commerce, the U.S. net international investment position (roughly the net external debt position with its sign reversed) at the end of 1987 was a negative $368 billion. This sum represents a deterioration of about $100 billion from the end-1986 level. The sharp downward plunge in the United States' net international investment position in recent years is, of course, a reflection of the large current account deficits recorded during most of the 1980s. In this paper, the U.S. net external debt position is examined and compared with the experience ...
Working Paper
Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic stabilization in a developing country
Argentina's Austral Plan is used as a point of departure for the investigation of the role of exchange rate policy in a macroeconomic stabilization program for a developing country. A model of a country like Argentina is developed and the relationship between the exchange rate and macroeconomic policy is derived. The paper next explores the implementing of alternative macroeconomic policy strategies involving exchange rates. The framework provides a rough way of quantifying and making operational what is meant by "appropriate" fiscal and monetary policy in the context of a stabilization ...
Working Paper
External adjustment in selected developing countries in the 1990s
An analytic and accounting framework is presented for examining the evolution of the external positions of eight developing countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Korea, Mexico, Peru, the Philippines, and Venezuela. The framework is used to analyze the historical paths of external debts in these countries. Then, under fairly conventional baseline specifications, and assuming that no other relevant factors change significantly, projections for the debt-export ratios in these eight developing countries are generated, using the analytic framework and a simple simulation model. The baseline ...
Working Paper
The British banking system's demand for cash reserves
Working Paper
International economic implications of the end of the Soviet Union
This paper quantifies roughly some potential economic developments in the former Soviet Union (FSU), if substantive economic reforms go forward, and assesses the likely implications of these developments for the rest of the world. It is assumed that a move to world prices for energy and other economic reforms result in a significant increase in FSU net oil exports. This paper develops and analyzes several alternative scenarios, including cases in which the FSU is specified to cooperate with OPEC. The simulations reported in this paper indicate that the FSU countries would be major ...
Working Paper
Monetary correction and interest rates
Journal Article
Consumption and fixed investment in the economic recovery abroad
Working Paper
The denationalization of money: a review