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Working Paper
The labor market experience and impact of undocumented workers
Using administrative data from the state of Georgia, the authors find that average wages among documented workers are lower in industries that employ undocumented workers and that a greater share of undocumented workers in those industries further lowers wages. In addition, undocumented workers have significantly lower labor supply elasticity, likely as a result of their limited employment and grievance opportunities. Furthermore, the inflow of undocumented workers does more to displace earlier hired undocumented workers than it does to displace documented workers.
Working Paper
Employment growth and labor force participation: how many jobs are enough?
This paper demonstrates that, because of declining labor force participation rates, the usual estimates of job creation needed to keep unemployment in check are too high. It is estimated that only 98,000 jobs (rather than the usual goal of 150,000 jobs) need to be created per month to absorb the growing labor force. As the population ages, the labor force will grow even more slowly, and the number of jobs that need to be created will decline. This paper explores the potential implication of this decline in labor force growth on total output along with potential sources of replacement labor to ...
Discussion Paper
Wage Pressures in the Labor Market: What Do They Say?
Wage pressures among the newly employed in low-wage service occupations appear to be the result of normal economic forces, likely reflecting demand surges for—and a reluctant supply of—workers in occupations particularly hard hit by pandemic-induced economic shutdowns.
Working Paper
Welfare recipiency, job separation outcomes, and postseparation earnings: insight from linked personnel and state administrative data
This paper uses a unique personnel data set and state administrative data to follow welfare and nonwelfare hires who separate from similar jobs with the same firm. Welfare hires are more likely to separate from their job and are more likely to be on welfare after separation compared with similarly low-skilled nonwelfare hires. Those not returning to welfare, however, are no more or less likely to have moved on to a lower- or higher-paying job than nonwelfare hires.
Journal Article
Growing part-time employment among workers with disabilities: marginalization or opportunity?
Even though part-time jobs offer lower pay, fewer benefits, and less stability, voluntary part-time employment among disabled workers has increased over the past twenty years even as part-time work has declined among nondisabled workers. Does this trend signal that part-time work has become more attractive to disabled workers, or does it mean that disabled workers are being pushed to the fringe in the workforce? ; This article attempts to answer these questions by looking at the part-time employment experience of disabled workers since 1984. Using data from the Current Population Survey, the ...
Working Paper
Undocumented worker employment and firm survivability
Do firms employing undocumented workers have a competitive advantage? Using administrative data from the state of Georgia, this paper investigates the incidence of undocumented worker employment across firms and how it affects firm survival. Firms are found to engage in herding behavior, being more likely to employ undocumented workers if competitors do. Rivals' undocumented employment harms firms' ability to survive while firms' own undocumented employment strongly enhances their survival prospects. This finding suggests that firms enjoy cost savings from employing lower-paid undocumented at ...
Working Paper
Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Labor Supply and Welfare of Married Households
This paper calculates the change in optimal labor supply and total family welfare resultingfrom the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA). We estimate labor supply elasticities for marriedfamilies in the Current Population Survey from 2015 to 2017, using a joint family utility model. Theseelasticities are then used to simulate changes in optimal labor supply and resulting change in welfareamong families with different characteristics under the new TCJA tax code. We find that optimalhours are lower post-TCJA, relative to before. However, there are differences across family membersand family ...
Working Paper
Evidence of demand factors in the determination of the labor market intermittency penalty
The purpose of this paper is to determine whether any empirical evidence exists for the contribution of employer, or demand-side, determinants of the labor market intermittency penalty. The documented negative relationship between the size of the penalty and labor market strength is interpreted as evidence that labor market intermittency is viewed as an undesirable characteristic that employers penalize more severely when the labor market is weak.
Working Paper
Adjusted Employment-to-Population Ratio as an Indicator of Labor Market Strength
As a measure of labor market strength, the raw employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) confounds employment outcomes with labor supply behavior. Movement in the EPOP depends on the relative movements of the employment rate (one minus the unemployment rate) and the labor force participation rate. This paper proposes an adjustment to the calculation of the EPOP using individual microdata to account for both individual characteristics and the probability of labor force participation, which can used to assess the strength of the labor market.
Discussion Paper
Mismatch of Jobs and People: Do Migration Constraints Put Racial Minorities at a Disadvantage?
Using the American Community Survey between 2005 and 2017, this article explores the evidence for potential migration constraints by comparing distributions of people and jobs across race and education. Using the Delta Index of dissimilarity, it illustrates a greater distributional mismatch between workers and jobs among racial minorities, relative to White non-Hispanics. This mismatch suggests greater migration constraints among racial minorities.