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Author:Holmes, Thomas J. 

Discussion Paper
New manufacturing investment and unions

Despite recent media stories about both labor unions and the potential revitalization of U.S. manufacturing, most current policy discussions about improving business climate to foster manufacturing neglect the role of unions. This, plus the continued decline in U.S. union membership, might lead one to believe that unions matter little for new investment decisions. This essay argues that, in fact, unions remain an extremely significant factor in decisions by U.S. manufacturers about where they will or will not make new investments. Both unions and manufacturing are discussed in an analysis ...
Economic Policy Paper , Paper 13-2

Working Paper
Exports, borders, distance, and plant size

The fact that large manufacturing plants export relatively more than small plants has been at the foundation of much work in the international trade literature. We examine this fact using Census micro data on plant shipments from the Commodity Flow Survey. We show the fact is not entirely an international trade phenomenon; part of it can be accounted for by the effect of distance, distinct from any border effect. Export destinations tend to be further than domestic destinations, and large plants tend to ship further distances even to domestic locations, as compared with small plants. We ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2010-38

Report
Technical appendix for quid pro quo: Technology capital transfers for market access in China

Despite the recent rapid development and greater openness of China?s economy, FDI flows between China and technologically advanced countries are relatively small in both directions. We assess global capital flows in light of China?s quid pro quo policy of exchanging market access for transfers of technology capital?accumulated know-how such as research and development (R&D) that can be used in multiple production locations. We first provide empirical evidence of this policy and then incorporate it into a multicountry dynamic general equilibrium model. This extension leads to a significantly ...
Staff Report , Paper 487

Report
Patent data appendix for quid pro quo: Technology capital transfers for market access in China

Despite the recent rapid development and greater openness of China?s economy, FDI flows between China and technologically advanced countries are relatively small in both directions. We assess global capital flows in light of China?s quid pro quo policy of exchanging market access for transfers of technology capital?accumulated know-how such as research and development (R&D) that can be used in multiple production locations. We first provide empirical evidence of this policy and then incorporate it into a multicountry dynamic general equilibrium model. This extension leads to a significantly ...
Staff Report , Paper 488

Journal Article
Resistance to new technology and trade between areas

Historically, competition, or the extension of markets, has repeatedly brought tremendous increases in wealth. However, there is still plenty of uncertainty among economists as to why that is so. This article develops a model in which competition, modeled as the movement of goods between two areas, reduces resistance to new technology and, hence, leads to increased technology adoption and wealth. Here, the extension of markets leads to wealth increases because it reduces activities that block the use of new, more productive technology.
Quarterly Review , Volume 19 , Issue Win , Pages 2-17

Working Paper
A theory of outsourcing and wage decline

We develop a theory of outsourcing in which there is market power in one factor market (labor) and no market power in a second factor market (capital). There are two intermediate goods: one labor-intensive and the other capital-intensive. We show there is always outsourcing in the market allocation when a friction limiting outsourcing is not too big. The key factor underlying the result is that labor demand is more elastic, the greater the labor share. Integrated plants pay higher wages than the specialist producers of labor-intensive intermediates. We derive conditions under which there are ...
Working Papers , Paper 669

Report
Quid pro quo: Technology capital transfers for market access in China

Despite the recent rapid development and greater openness of China?s economy, FDI flows between China and technologically advanced countries are relatively small in both directions. We assess global capital flows in light of China?s quid pro quo policy of exchanging market access for transfers of technology capital?accumulated know-how such as research and development (R&D) that can be used in multiple production locations. We first provide empirical evidence of this policy and then incorporate it into a multicountry dynamic general equilibrium model. This extension leads to a significantly ...
Staff Report , Paper 486

Discussion Paper
The Costs of Quid Pro Quo

To gain access to its markets, the Chinese government sometimes requires high-technology foreign firms to transfer partial property rights to their technology. Because the Chinese market is large and potentially lucrative, major multinationals typically agree to this quid pro quo policy, often through joint ventures with Chinese firms. We use a quantitative macroeconomic model to analyze the effects of this policy on firm investment incentives, Chinese technology goals, and overall international technology and investment flows. We find that: ?China has a very strong incentive to use the ...
Economic Policy Paper , Paper 15-1

Working Paper
Geographic concentration and establishment size: analysis in an alternative economic geography model

Big cities specialize in services rather than manufacturing. Big-city establishments in services are larger than the national average while those in manufacturing are smaller. This paper proposes an explanation of these and other facts. The theory is developed in an economic geography model that is an alternative to the standard Dixit-Stiglitz structure. In our tractable structure that has potentially wider application, firms have monopoly power in local markets, but are price takers in export markets.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2002-17

Working Paper
Economies of density versus natural advantage: crop choice on the back forty

We estimate the factors determining specialization of crop choice at the level of individual fields, distinguishing between the role of natural advantage (soil characteristics) and economies of density (scale economies achieved when farmers plant neighboring fields with the same crop). Using rich geographic data from North Dakota, including new data on crop choice collected by satellite, we estimate the analog of a social interactions econometric model for the planting decisions on neighboring fields. We find that planting decisions on a field are heavily dependent on the soil characteristics ...
Working Papers , Paper 668

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