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Author:Hirtle, Beverly 

Discussion Paper
Becoming More Alike? Comparing Bank and Federal Reserve Stress Test Results

Stress tests have become an important method of assessing whether financial institutions have enough capital to operate in bad economic conditions. Under the provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act, both the Federal Reserve and large U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) are required to do annual stress tests and to disclose these results to the public. While the BHCs’ and the Federal Reserve’s projections are made under the same macroeconomic scenario, the results differ, primarily because of differences in the models used to make the projections. In this post, we look at the 2014 stress test ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140721

Journal Article
Estimating the funding gap of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation

Quarterly Review , Volume 13 , Issue Aut , Pages 45-59

Discussion Paper
What Explains Shareholder Payouts by Large Banks?

On June 28, the Federal Reserve released the latest results of the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR), the supervisory program that assesses the capital adequacy and capital planning processes of large, complex banking companies. The Fed did not object to any of the banks? capital plans, an outcome that was widely heralded as a signal that these banks would be able to increase payouts to their shareholders. And in fact, immediately following the release of the CCAR results, several large banks announced substantial increases in quarterly dividends and record-sized share ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20171018

Journal Article
How Do Banks Build Equity Capital?

This article examines the evolution of equity capital in the U.S. banking industry over the past thirty-five years. Earnings are the major driver of increases in equity capital in the banking industry. While common stock issuance is frequent, amounts issued are generally small and do not contribute meaningfully to equity capital growth in most cases. Common stock dividends and repurchases are significant drains on equity capital. It is not uncommon for banks to pay out more than they earn, reflecting both capital planning motivations and negative shocks to earnings. It is also common for ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 32 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-48

Report
Wage linkages in union bargaining settlements

Research Paper , Paper 8805

Journal Article
Trends in financial market concentration and their implications for market stability

The link between financial market concentration and stability is a topic of great interest to policymakers and other market participants. Are concentrated markets - those where a relatively small number of firms hold large market shares - inherently more prone to disruption? This article considers that question by drawing on academic studies as well as introducing new analysis. Like other researchers, the authors find an ambiguous relationship between concentration and instability when a large firm in a concentrated market fails. In a complementary review of concentration trends across a ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 13 , Issue Mar , Pages 33-51

Journal Article
Supervising large, complex financial institutions: what do supervisors do?

The supervision of large, complex financial institutions is one of the most important, but least understood, activities of the Federal Reserve. Supervision entails monitoring and oversight to assess whether firms are engaged in unsafe or unsound practices, and to ensure that firms take appropriate action to correct such practices. It is distinct from regulation, which involves the development and promulgation of the rules under which firms operate. This article brings greater transparency to the Federal Reserve?s supervisory activities by considering how they are structured, staffed, and ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 23-1 , Pages 57-77

Discussion Paper
Just Released: What Do Banking Supervisors Do?

In most developed economies, banking is among the most regulated and supervised sectors. While 'regulation' and 'supervision' are often used interchangeably, these two activities are distinct. Banking supervision is a complement to regulation, but its scope is much broader than simply ensuring that an institution is in compliance with regulation. Despite the importance of supervision, information about it is often limited, both because of the heavy reliance upon banks' confidential information and because many supervisory activities and actions are themselves confidential. In a recently ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150528

Report
Bank Economic Capital

Conventional measures of bank solvency fail to account for the unique liquidity risks posed by deposits. Using public regulatory data, we develop a novel measure, economic capital, that jointly quantifies the impact of credit, liquidity, and market risk. We validate that economic capital is a more timely and accurate indicator of bank health than standard solvency measures. Using our framework, we examine the evolution of banking sector solvency and find that following the GFC low interest rates depressed economic capital even as liquidity and market risks grew. We conclude with several ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1144

Discussion Paper
Are BHC and Federal Reserve Stress Test Results Converging? What Do We Learn from 2015?

In March, the Federal Reserve and thirty-one large U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) announced results of the latest Dodd-Frank Act-mandated stress tests. Some commentators have argued that BHCs, in designing their stress test models, have strong incentives to mimic the Fed’s stress test results, since the Fed’s results are an integral part of the Federal Reserve’s supervisory assessment of capital adequacy for these firms. In this post, we look at the 2015 stress test projections by the eighteen largest U.S. BHCs and by the Fed and compare them to similar numbers from 2013 and 2014. ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150406

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