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Working Paper
Money is what money predicts: the M* model of the price level
Over the past twenty years, the monetary aggregates used by the Federal Reserve as indicators of economic activity and inflation have changed several times. Each of the changes in the measures of money was sparked by a breakdown in the fit of empirical money demand functions. The Federal Reserve's strategy following these breakdowns has been to redefine money by simply adding new assets to the old definitions. The criterion in each case was whether adding the new assets produced an empirically stable money demand function. Unfortunately, while a stable demand for money is a worthwhile ...
Working Paper
Marriage and consumption insurance: what's love got to do with it?
This paper explores marriage?s role when markets are incomplete and individuals cannot diversify their idiosyncratic labor income risk. All else being equal, an individual would rather marry a ?hedge? (a person whose income is negatively correlated with her own) because doing so raises her expected utility. However, the existence of love complicates the picture: Although marrying a hedge is important, an individual may not do so if she finds someone with whom she shares a great deal of love. Is love more important to a lasting marriage than economic compatibility? To answer this question, the ...
Working Paper
Risk sharing of disaggregate macroeconomic and idiosyncratic shocks
Comparing the degree to which idiosyncratic and disaggregate macro shocks (such as regional and industry shocks) are not shared in the economy provides greater understanding of why the economy lacks risk-sharing arrangements in specific areas and can suggest areas where the economy?s risk-sharing capability could be enhanced. The authors find that a negligible amount of risk (around 10 percent) is shared in the aggregate, about 50 percent is shared within regions and industries, while the remaining 40 percent is not shared with other households. These findings suggest that given the low level ...
Working Paper
An investigation into the magnitude of foreign conflicts
Journal Article
The long-run costs of moderate inflation
Long-run price stability is generally considered to be a primary goal of monetary policymakers in many countries. One reason policymakers care about inflation is that it can harm economic performance. Numerous studies of the impact of inflation on economic performance have focused on whether increases in inflation reduce economic growth in the long run These studies have found that prolonged high inflation does in fact reduce economic growth, but they were not able to detect a significant long-run relationship between real growth and low or moderate inflation. Because anti-inflationary ...
