Journal Article
Housing and the Great Recession : a VAR accounting exercise
Wolman, Alexander L.; Henly, Samuel E. (2011-01)
We use a vector autoregression (VAR) for the components of gross domestic product (GDP) to conduct some sectoral and temporal accounting for the current recession. It is obvious that housing played an important role in the current recession, but residential investment declined for two years before GDP declined. According to the VAR, the level of GDP in the second quarter of 2009---the trough of the decline in GDP---was close to but above the level implied by the estimated sequence of VAR innovations to residential investment over the period 2006:Q1--2009:Q2. Until late 2007 other offsetting ...
Economic Quarterly , Volume 97 , Issue 1Q , Pages 45-66

Briefing
Turmoil in the student loan market
Walter, John R.; Henly, Samuel E. (2008-12)
Recent credit market problems and federal legislation lowering lender revenues have diminished the availability of some types of student loans. Nevertheless, new sources of funding have become available, changing the structure of the market while helping to meet the demand for student loans
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Dec

Journal Article
The U.S. establishment-size distribution: secular changes and sectoral decomposition
Sanchez, Juan M.; Henly, Samuel E. (2009-10)
This article studies the U.S. establishment-size distribution from 1974?2006. The main findings are: (i) the size of the ?representative? establishment is relatively constant; (ii) the size distribution has become slightly more evenly distributed; (iii) the relative stability of aggregate statistics obscures important movements in the manufacturing and service sectors; (iv) both intra- and intersector changes contribute to aggregate changes; and (v) changes in the size distribution of firms are similar to those of establishments. These findings will be useful to calibrate and test models with ...
Economic Quarterly , Volume 95 , Issue Fall , Pages 419-454