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Working Paper
Short Selling and Bank Deposit Flows
Some observers have argued that the short selling of bank stock contributes to bank runs and bank failures. Previously, no evidence has been available. We find no evidence that more short selling of bank stock is associated with materially larger outflows of bank deposits. We believe this means that proposals to restrict the short selling of bank stock should be supported by other arguments.
Journal Article
Financial Markets’ Perceptions of the FOMC’s Data-Dependent Monetary Policy
Over the past ten years, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has repeatedly emphasized that future policy is data dependent. In this Economic Commentary, we investigate how financial markets expected future interest rates to change with the release of new data on inflation and labor market conditions. We find that the surprises in economic indicators have a stronger effect on the 2-year Treasury yield than on the expected federal funds rate to be set in the next FOMC meeting. This implies that markets understand that under the data-dependent approach, policy decisions do not heavily rely ...
Journal Article
Monetary Policy since the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Path-Dependent Interpretation
Some argue that the Fed underreacted to rising inflation in 2021 after the US economy started to recover from the COVID-19 crisis. By using data from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), we surmise that the FOMC expected to keep the federal funds rate near zero by the end of 2021, but at the same time, the committee also expected to make the policy rate catch up to inflation over the next two years. We then argue that the Fed chose this gradual approach in response to the negative demand shock that pushed the policy rate to its effective zero lower bound. Economic literature on optimal ...
Working Paper
Short Selling and Bank Deposit Flows
Some observers have argued that the short selling of bank stock contributes to bank runs and bank failures. Previously, no evidence has been available. We find no evidence that more short selling of bank stock is associated with materially larger outflows of bank deposits. We believe this means that proposals to restrict the short selling of bank stock should be supported by other arguments.