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Author:Haubrich, Joseph G. 

Report
Putting systemic risk on the radar screen

As the nation ponders its response to the greatest financial crisis in generations, plans for regulatory reform are everywhere. Proposals to break up big financial companies, create a new agency for consumer protection, and lay out additional rules for derivatives, insurance companies, and hedge funds?they?re all on the table.
Annual Report

Working Paper
Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997

Using the yield curve helps forecast real growth over the period 1875 to 1997. Using both the level and slope of the curve improves forecasts more than using either variable alone. Forecast performance changes over time and depends somewhat on whether recursive or rolling out of sample regressions are used.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0611

Discussion Paper
A conference on liquidity in frictional markets

This Policy Discussion Paper summarizes the papers that were presented at the Liquidity in Frictional Markets conference in November 2008. The papers, which looked at markets for assets as diverse as houses, bank loans, and electronic funds transfer, all explored that amorphous concept called liquidity and how its presenceor absenceaffects the economy.
Policy Discussion Papers , Issue May

Working Paper
Factors Affecting Regional Bank Health and Supervisory Rating: An Exploration

Local commercial real estate conditions are positively correlated with the health of regional banks (assets between $10 billion and $100 billion), as measured by the composite confidential supervisory rating. Among other variables, return on assets is positively correlated with our proxy of bank health, but size and capital ratio are negatively correlated. Among the different components of the rating, the management rating has the most influence on the composite rating.
Working Papers , Paper 26-02

Journal Article
The sources and nature of long-term memory in aggregate output

This article examines the stochastic properties of aggregate macroeconomic time series from the standpoint of fractionally integrated models, focusing on the persistence of economic shocks. The authors develop a simple macroeconomic model that exhibits long-range dependence, a consequence of aggregation in the presence of real business cycles. To implement these results empirically, they employ a test for fractionally integrated time series based on the Hurst-Mandelbrot rescaled range. This test is robust to short-range dependence and is applied to quarterly and annual real GDP to determine ...
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 15-30

Journal Article
Oil prices: backward to the future?

A useful first guess about the future spot price of a commodity is usually found in its current futures price. But it doesn?t work that way when the commodity in question is oil. This Commentary explains why the characteristics of oil, particularly the value it can offer its owner by remaining in the ground, cloud the information that oil futures prices give about future oil prices.
Economic Commentary , Issue Dec

Working Paper
Committing and reneging: a dynamic model of policy regimes.

Actual policy decisions are made in real time and are not irrevocable. These observations are mundane, but most policy modeling has neglected them. We show that when policy is made in an environment of uncertainty, costs of switching policies give the option to wait positive value. This insight has several implications: First, the option to wait itself makes the incumbent regime relatively more attractive (compared to the traditional once-and-for-all analysis). Second, the option to wait means that increased uncertainty makes the incumbent regime more attractive. Third, because the commitment ...
Working Papers , Paper 1999-020

Journal Article
Swaps and the swaps yield curve

Interest rate swaps have become a popular financial derivative, and market watchers and economists are paying closer attention to them and their associated yield curves. This Commentary gives a brief introduction to swaps and their relation to other interest rates.
Economic Commentary , Issue Dec

Working Paper
Commitment as irreversible investment

Considering time inconsistency as a problem of irreversible investment brings some neglected points to the fore. Making a policy choice in real time and under current conditions emphasizes the importance of the timing of commitment, the regret over past decisions, and the option value of not committing. This paper applies these concepts to monetary policy, banking regulation, and capital taxation.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9217

Conference Paper
Banking and commerce: an approach based on liquidity synergies

Proceedings , Paper 610

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