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Journal Article
Tracking the economy with the purchasing managers' index
The purchasing managers' index is a widely watched but virtually untested indicator of manufacturing activity. This article examines how well the index lives up to its billing as a leading indicator. The author also explores whether the index supplies information about the economy beyond that already provided by other indicators.
Journal Article
Forecasting automobile output
Journal Article
The commodity-consumer price connection: fact or fable?
The recent surge in commodity prices has rekindled interest in their power to predict consumer price inflation. But is this interest warranted? In examining the empirical relationship between commodity prices and consumer price inflation, this article finds that commodities' reputation as useful leading indicators of inflation is actually based more on fable than fact. Testing eight commonly used indexes, the authors conclude that although commodities had some predictive power in the past, the commodity-consumer price connection has broken down in the more recent period. They argue that this ...
Journal Article
Monetary policy influence on the economy-an empirical analysis
Journal Article
The decline in U.S. saving and its implications for economic growth
The authors document the trends in U.S. saving during the 1980s, giving particular attention to those measures of saving that gauge the growth of productive assets. They go on to assess the effects of these developments on capital formation and the nation's long-term economic potential.
Report
What do chain store sales tell us about consumer spending?
In recent years, the sales reports of major retail chains have received increasing attention as timely indicators of consumer spending. Despite this attention, a close review of the literature on chain store indexes as macroeconomic indicators reveals that there is no literature! This paper fills this gap, showing how chain store data fit into the broader issues of how we measure and forecast consumer spending. We describe the linkages between chain store data and official measures of consumer spending, highlighting the key seasonality and pricing issues. We then present a battery of ...