Discussion Paper
Evaluating Forecast Performance of Market-based Measures of Inflation Expectations in Europe
Acharya, Shaily; Harikrishnan, Nira; Mertens, Thomas M.; Zhang, Tony (2024-07-19)
Predictions of future inflation rates shed light on the path of the economy and inform central banks’ policy rate decisions. Two commonly used sources of inflation forecasts are surveys and market-based inflation expectations. Survey-based inflation expectations, such as those from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, are derived by eliciting responses from a group of respondents about their beliefs.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2024-07-19-4

Discussion Paper
U.S. Interest Rates and Emerging Market Currencies: Taking Stock 10 Years After the Taper Tantrum
Harikrishnan, Nira; Silk, Benjamin; Yoldas, Emre (2023-10-04)
In 2013, a shift in expectations of market participants for the timing of the tapering of the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, and its ramifications for normalization of U.S. monetary policy, led to sharp increases in longer-term U.S. Treasury yields and volatility in broader financial markets. The episode came to be known as the "taper tantrum" because the strong market reaction came in response to Federal Reserve communications that were largely consistent with market analysts' expectations.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2023-10-04