Search Results
Journal Article
Decomposing inflation
As U.S. core inflation measures have declined in recent years, analysts have renewed their efforts to understand inflation dynamics. A common approach to this issue is to make inferences about how price changes of major components affect the aggregate inflation rate. This article takes a more rigorous approach, calculating and plotting the precise contributions of major consumer expenditure categories to core inflation measures over time. ; This technique has distinct advantages. It highlights the underlying trends in inflation, enabling analysts to make more informed inferences about the ...
Discussion Paper
Signs of a Slowdown? Evidence From Our October Business Surveys
After a few months of upward movement in the headline indexes of our business surveys, results took a downward turn in October. This was especially true in the service sector, where both current and expected activity deteriorated noticeably. However, despite what may be evidence of a shift to a slower pace of demand, firms on balance appear to be holding steady on hiring plans, at least for the near term.
Discussion Paper
How to Get the (High-Skilled) Workers?
Over the past year, the labor market has been extremely tight, with record high job openings and historically low unemployment. So, it's no surprise that firms have struggled to find workers. To overcome hiring challenges, firms have been using various strategies, the most common of which is wage increases. Those strategies may be paying off to some extent: Our Fifth District business surveys suggest that the worst of the challenge finding workers has passed. Nonetheless, firms are still reporting difficulties, and our most recent survey revealed a notable shift in the type of workers firms ...
Working Paper
Using the Kalman filter to smooth the shocks of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model
This paper shows how to use the Kalman filter (Kalman 1960) to back out the shocks of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. In particular, we use the smoothing algorithm as described in Hamilton (1994) to estimate the shocks of a sticky-prices and sticky-wages model using all the information up to the end of the sample.
Journal Article
Smoothing the shocks of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model
In some ways, the recession of 2001 and the recovery that followed it were unique: During the recession, the contraction in measured output was driven almost entirely by a retrenchment in business capital spending while consumer spending and residential investment remained positive. And the recovery was marked by moderate, uneven gross domestic product growth and job market weakness that were historically unusual. These events raise questions about the conventional wisdom on post?World War II business cycles. ; To help answer these questions, the authors use a general equilibrium model with ...
Discussion Paper
Spotlight on Rural Best Practices: Lessons From the 2023 IRA Poster Session
Throughout our region, small towns and rural communities are continually working to improve outcomes for their residents. And we can learn a lot from how different communities, and the organizations within them, are gaining positive traction. What are their ingredients for success?While the mix of ingredients differs from one community to the next, a top five list has emerged from the Richmond Fed's engagement with rural communities over the past several years: 1) regional collaboration; 2) strong local leadership; 3) telling a compelling story; 4) playing to strengths; and 5) taking a ...
Discussion Paper
A Penny for Your Thoughts? How Survey Comments Help Us Understand Our Region’s Labor Market
We regularly report the quantitative results from the Richmond Fed business surveys, but participants' comments also provide useful context for changes in local business conditions. Most recently, a survey of human resources professionals complemented our surveys of area businesses. The comments from both surveys have provided insight into the region's labor market, as well as indicated that the persistent challenge of finding workers has led executives and recruiters to intensify their efforts and expand the tools they use to attract workers.
Report
Unsustainable fiscal policy: implications for monetary policy
Federal government debt held by the public reached 67.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2011, and trends point to large budget deficits for many years to come. In this essay, economics writer Renee Haltom and research director John Weinberg explore the implications for monetary policy if the United States ever approached its "fiscal limit." In that scenario, the Federal Reserve might face pressure to produce inflation revenue. The authors conclude that the United States must avoid this scenario by placing fiscal policy on a more sustainable path
Discussion Paper
The Updated Employment Picture
Each year, typically with little fanfare, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases revisions to historical employment data. While you may wonder if this means that history gets rewritten, it's really about making written history more accurate. Revisions are standard practice for not only employment data, but also other economic data. Revisions incorporate more complete underlying data that become available over time, as well as updates to data estimation procedures (most economic data are not based on complete counts; instead, they're based on samples that are used to generate complete ...