Search Results
Working Paper
Measuring the return on spending on the Medicare HMO program
I estimate the welfare provided by and net costs of the Medicare HMO program in 1999-2002. I measure welfare with a nested logit model of demand for Medicare HMO plans using detailed data on plan benefits. From this, I derive estimates of consumer surplus and find that total welfare provided by the program over the four-year period is about $61 billion (2000 $). I also use data on favorable selection enjoyed by Medicare HMOs to estimate net costs, which total about $21 billion (2000 $). Net welfare therefore totals nearly $40 billion and the return on spending is about 186%.
Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2009 annual revision
On March 27, 2009, the Federal Reserve published revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. The overall contour of total IP is little changed by the revision. Industrial output rose steadily at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent from 2004 through 2007, then fell sharply in 2008 at a rate of negative 6.7 percent.
Working Paper
The value of Medicare managed care plans and their prescription drug benefits
I estimate the welfare, both gross and net, provided by the Medicare managed care program in 1999 through 2002. First, I estimate a model of demand for the benefits offered by managed care plans to Medicare beneficiaries. I then use the demand estimates to form estimates of welfare provided by the program. Medicare beneficiaries derived $14.9 billion of gross welfare per year from the Medicare HMO program. Depending on the amount of selection in the program, the Medicare managed care program provided from -$10.3 billion to $35.1 billion of net welfare total over the four-year period. I also ...