Search Results
Journal Article
Exchange rate regimes and volatility
Journal Article
Is purchasing power parity a useful guide to the dollar?
Journal Article
The effect of the U.S. energy boom on the trade deficit
Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie predict the real energy trade deficit will decline at a much slower pace in 2015 than in the past few years.
Working Paper
Exchange rates in the long run
If Purchasing Power Parity holds in the long run, then real exchange rates are mean stationary. To test this hypothesis, monthly data on bilateral real exchange rates between the United States and five countries extending back to the 1920s are calculated. The null hypothesis of mean stationarity is tested against a variety of nonstationary alternatives. Our results strongly favor mean stationarity over models that permit long-run trends in real exchange rates. The data also favor stationarity over a unit root process with no drift. We show that the realized path of the real exchange rate lies ...
Working Paper
How real is the \"real exchange rate?\"
Journal Article
Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI)
Working Paper
Market efficiency and cointegration
Working Paper
Forecasting Foreign Economic Growth Using Cross-Country Data
We construct a monthly measure of foreign economic growth based on a wide range of cross-county indicators. Unlike GDP data, which are normally released with a delay of one to two quarters in most countries, our monthly measure incorporates monthly information up to the current month. As new information arrives, this measure of foreign growth can be updated as frequently as daily. This monthly measure of foreign growth not only helps gauge the economic conditions in other countries but also provides a timely measure of foreign demand to help forecast U.S. export growth.
Journal Article
Long-term survey-based inflation expectations have become better anchored
Craig S. Hakkio finds that while the median of some long-term inflation forecasts has declined, the distribution of individual forecasts suggests long-term inflation expectations have in fact become better anchored.