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Journal Article
Europe 1992: implications for U.S. firms
Journal Article
Are longer-term inflation expectations stable?
Bundick and Hakkio use survey data to evaluate the stability of forecasters' long-term inflation expectations.
Journal Article
Exchange rate volatility and Federal Reserve policy
Journal Article
Social Security and Medicare : the impending fiscal challenge
Social Security?and the solvency of its Trust Fund?have increasingly become a focus of discussion in the media and policy circles. The basic problem is that promised benefits will soon exceed program revenues. Without changes in benefits or funding, the Trustees of Social Security project that assets in the Trust Fund will be depleted in 2041. While Social Security is a serious problem for taxpayers and beneficiaries, Medicare poses an even greater challenge. Together, the two programs? benefits currently amount to about 6 percent of GDP. By 2080 they are projected to swell to 20 percent. ...
Working Paper
The international role of the dollar
Working Paper
The distribution of exchange rates in the EMS
Working Paper
Exchange rates in the 1980s
Journal Article
Costs and benefits of reducing inflation
Journal Article
The U.S. current account: the other deficit
Considerable attention has been focused recently on the size and persistence of the U.S. budget deficit. Somewhat lost in the headlines is growing concern among many economists and policymakers over "the other deficit"--the U.S. current account deficit. Before 1982, U.S. current account deficits were small and temporary, as imports of goods and services rarely exceeded exports for an extended period. Since 1982, however, this deficit has increased significantly and many analysts expect the deficit to remain high well into the next century.> Large current account deficits pose both a ...
Working Paper
Exchange rates in the long run
If Purchasing Power Parity holds in the long run, then real exchange rates are mean stationary. To test this hypothesis, monthly data on bilateral real exchange rates between the United States and five countries extending back to the 1920s are calculated. The null hypothesis of mean stationarity is tested against a variety of nonstationary alternatives. Our results strongly favor mean stationarity over models that permit long-run trends in real exchange rates. The data also favor stationarity over a unit root process with no drift. We show that the realized path of the real exchange rate lies ...