Search Results
Showing results 1 to 7 of approximately 7.
(refine search)
Working Paper
The credibility of the Wall Street Journal in reporting the timing and details of monetary policy events
This paper answers questions raised about our use of the Wall Street Journal in an earlier paper in which we estimated the effect of changes in the federal funds rate target -- the Federal Reserve's policy instrument -- on market interest rates in the 1970s. In that paper we found that changes in the funds rate target caused large movements in short-term interest rates and smaller but significant movements in longer-term rates.
Working Paper
The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s
The standard empirical test of whether the Federal Reserve can influence interest rates is to regress interest rates on current and past (actual or unexpected) values of money growth. This literature generally finds little support for the view that the Fed can influence interest rates, except perhaps through the positive impact on inflation expectations of increases in money growth.
Journal Article
Interest rate expectations and the slope of the money market yield curve
An examination of the relationship between yield and maturity in the money market. The expectations theory suggests that the yield curve should be a good predictor of future spot interest rates. A substantial body of research in recent years has tested this implication of the theory and discussed possible reasons for the lack of support for the theory from these tests. This paper provides a review of this literature.
Monograph
Commercial paper
Working Paper
The information content of discount rate announcements and their effect on market interest rates
This paper presents evidence that throughout the 1973-85 period the Federal Reserve systematically used certain types of discount rate announcements to signal changes in its policy instrument, the Federal funds rate. Market participants understood the signals contained in discount rate announcements and used them to revise their expectations of the future path of the funds rate. These revisions in funds rate expectations caused movements in Treasury bill rates. The paper also presents evidence that discount rate announcements signaling changes in the funds rate had a strong effect on bond ...
Journal Article
Commercial paper
Working Paper
The reaction of interest rates to unanticipated Federal Reserve actions and statements, 1977-1984: implications for the money announcement controversy
Considerable attention has been devoted to the reaction of interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and stock prices to unanticipated money growth revealed by the weekly M1 money stock announcement. Numerous articles have attempted to explain why nominal interest rates rise following the announcement of an M1 figure higher than expected and fall when an M1 figure is lower than expected. The major controversy in this literature is whether the observed reaction of interest rates reflects changes in the inflation expectations component or in the real rate component of the nominal rate.