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Journal Article
The federal government's budget surplus: Cause for celebration?
Projected surpluses in the federal government's budget have generated fanfare sometimes verging on euphoria. Because the federal government last had a surplus in 1969, a projected surplus for fiscal year 1998 and later years is being viewed as something of a milestone. Unlike policies of the last three decades that have at least paid lip service to lowering the deficit, policy options now may include ways to use the surplus. Some have called for lowering taxes and others for increasing expenditures or retiring federal government debt. ; This article discusses the importance of going beyond ...
Journal Article
The new monetary aggregates
Journal Article
The value-added tax: a review of the issues
Journal Article
Against the tide: Malcolm Bryan and the introduction of monetary aggregate targets
Monetary policy was freed from the straightjacket of pegging U.S. Treasury interest rates following the Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord in 1951. This newfound freedom led to a growing debate inside and outside the Federal Reserve System about the appropriate measures to use as operating guides. This article examines the contributions of Malcolm Bryan, president of the Atlanta Fed from 1951 through 1965, to this debate and to the evolution of monetary policy in the postaccord era. ; Bryan parted company with most of his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee by trying to steer policy ...
Working Paper
Evaluating monetary base targeting rules
Working Paper
Bank failures in banking panics: Risky banks or road kill?
Are banks that fail in banking panics the riskiest ones prior to the panics? The free banking era in the United States provides useful data to examine this question because the assets held by the banks were traded at the New York Stock Exchange. The authors estimate the ex ante riskiness of a bank?s portfolio by examining the portfolio relative to mean-variance frontiers and by examining the bank's leverage and notes relative to assets. The authors find that the ex ante riskiness of a bank?s portfolio helps predict which banks fail and the extent of noteholders? losses in the event of failure.
Journal Article
The "rationality" of survey-based inflation forecasts