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Working Paper
Inflation uncertainty and a test of the Friedman hypothesis
This paper tests Friedman's (1977) hypothesis that increases in inflation uncertainty, ceteris paribus, may yield higher levels of unemployment. Tests are made using quarterly measures of inflation uncertainty taken from the ASA-NBER survey. Using the 1972-1984 period, we find general support for the hypothesis.
Journal Article
The prime rate and the cost of funds: is the prime too high?
Journal Article
Against the tide: Malcolm Bryan and the introduction of monetary aggregate targets
Monetary policy was freed from the straightjacket of pegging U.S. Treasury interest rates following the Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord in 1951. This newfound freedom led to a growing debate inside and outside the Federal Reserve System about the appropriate measures to use as operating guides. This article examines the contributions of Malcolm Bryan, president of the Atlanta Fed from 1951 through 1965, to this debate and to the evolution of monetary policy in the postaccord era. ; Bryan parted company with most of his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee by trying to steer policy ...
Journal Article
Darryl Francis and the Making of Monetary Policy, 1966-1975
Darryl Francis was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from 1966 to 1975. Throughout those years he was a leading critic of U.S. monetary policy. Francis argued in policy meetings and public venues that monetary policy should focus on maintaining a stable price level. In contrast, most policy- makers at the time believed it possible to exploit a trade-off between unemployment and inflation. While Francis attributed inflation directly to excessive growth of the money stock, other policymakers blamed labor and product market failures, fiscal policy, and commodity price shocks. ...