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Author:Guler, Bulent 

Report
Joint-search theory: new opportunities and new frictions

Search theory routinely assumes that decisions about the acceptance/rejection of job offers (and, hence, about labor market movements between jobs or across employment states) are made by individuals acting in isolation. In reality, the vast majority of workers are somewhat tied to their partners - in couples and families - and decisions are made jointly. This paper studies, from a theoretical viewpoint, the joint job-search and location problem of a household formed by a couple (e.g., husband and wife) who perfectly pools income. The objective of the exercise, very much in the spirit of ...
Staff Report , Paper 426

Working Paper
Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy

We argue that transitional dynamics play a critical role in evaluating the effects of punitive incarceration reform on crime, inequality, and labor markets. Individuals’ past choices regarding crime and employment under previous policies have persistent consequences that limit their responsiveness to policy changes. We provide novel cohort evidence supporting this mechanism. A quantitative model of this theory, calibrated using restricted administrative data, predicts nuanced dynamics of crime and incarceration that are distinct across property and violent crime and similar to the U.S. ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 101

Working Paper
Online Appendix: Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy

This online appendix accompanies Institute Working Paper 101: Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy.
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 102

Working Paper
Unemployment Insurance and Macro-Financial (In)Stability

We identify and study two mechanisms that can overturn the stabilizing effects of unemployment insurance (UI) policies. First, households in economies with more generous UI reduce their precautionary savings and increase their mortgage debt. Second, the share of mortgages, especially those with higher loan-to-income ratios, increases on bank balance sheets. As a result, both bank and household balance sheets become more vulnerable to adverse shocks, which deepens recessions. We demonstrate the importance of these channels by employing a quantitative heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-087

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