Journal Article
A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth
Grover, Sean P.; McCracken, Michael W.; Kliesen, Kevin L. (2016)
Analyzing the performance of the economy in real time is a challenge for those who must forecast macroeconomic variables such as inflation or employment. A key aspect of this challenge is evaluating the incoming flow of information contained in economic announcements. In this article, the authors develop a simple-to-read index of these announcements that they then use to construct nowcasts. The index tracks whether key economic data have come in stronger, weaker, or as expected during the current quarter relative to a baseline consensus forecast. Specifically, the data releases are weighted ...
Review , Volume 98 , Issue 4 , Pages 277-296

Journal Article
Metro profile: Louisville successfully transitions from industrial to service economy
Grover, Sean P.; Gascon, Charles S. (2013-07)
Louisville is the focus in the first installment of this new data-driven feature in The Regional Economist. Unlike many other older cities, Louisville has smoothly transitioned from the industrial economy to the service economy, thanks in no small part to its strong health-care and food-service industries.
The Regional Economist , Issue July

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Little Rock zone
McCrory, Peter B.; Ricketts, Lowell R.; Arias, Maria A.; Neely, Michelle Clark; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Cooke, Diana A.; Grover, Sean P. (2014-07)
Burgundy Books , Issue 3Q

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Memphis zone
McCrory, Peter B.; Ricketts, Lowell R.; Arias, Maria A.; Neely, Michelle Clark; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Cooke, Diana A.; Grover, Sean P. (2014-07)
Burgundy Books , Issue 3Q

Journal Article
Factor-based prediction of industry-wide bank stress
Grover, Sean P.; McCracken, Michael W. (2014)
This article investigates the use of factor-based methods for predicting industry-wide bank stress. Specifically, using the variables detailed in the Federal Reserve Board of Governors? bank stress scenarios, the authors construct a small collection of distinct factors. We then investigate the predictive content of these factors for net charge-offs and net interest margins at the bank industry level. The authors find that the factors do have significant predictive content, both in and out of sample, for net interest margins but significantly less predictive content for net charge-offs. ...
Review , Volume 96 , Issue 2 , Pages 173-194

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Louisville zone
McCrory, Peter B.; Ricketts, Lowell R.; Arias, Maria A.; Neely, Michelle Clark; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Cooke, Diana A.; Grover, Sean P. (2014-07)
Burgundy Books , Issue 3Q

Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the St. Louis zone
McCrory, Peter B.; Ricketts, Lowell R.; Arias, Maria A.; Neely, Michelle Clark; Kliesen, Kevin L.; Cooke, Diana A.; Grover, Sean P. (2014-07)
Burgundy Books , Issue 3Q