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Author:Grossman, Valerie 

Journal Article
Risk, uncertainty separately cloud global growth forecasting

Forecasts of global growth have historically been imprecise, punctuated by periods of optimism and pessimism. Inaccuracy in forecasting partly reflects quantifiable risks to the global outlook as well as economic uncertainty.
Economic Letter , Volume 11 , Issue 9 , Pages 1-4

Real-Time Market Monitoring Finds Signs of Brewing U.S. Housing Bubble

There is growing cause for concern that U.S. house prices are again becoming unhinged from fundamentals.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies

This paper estimates the natural interest rate for six small open economies (Australia, Canada, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K.) with a structural New Keynesian model using Bayesian techniques. Our empirical analysis establishes the following four novel findings: First, we show that the open-economy framework provides a better fit of the data than its closed-economy counterpart for the six countries we investigate. Second, we also show that, in all six countries, a monetary policy rule in which the domestic real policy rate tracks the Wicksellian domestic short-term natural rate ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 359

Spanish-Speaking Growth in Texas Reinforces Need to Close Education Gaps

The Eleventh Federal Reserve District has the second-largest native Spanish-language population in the Federal Reserve System. That population will grow further as the number of Hispanics exceeds 20 million in Texas alone by 2050.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies

This paper estimates the natural rate of interest for six small open economies (Australia, Canada, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K.) with a structural New Keynesian model using Bayesian techniques. Our empirical analysis establishes the following four main findings: First, we show that the open economy framework provides a better fit of the data than its closed economy counterpart for the six countries we investigate. Second, we also show that, in all six countries, a Taylor (1993)-type monetary policy rule that tracks the Wicksellian short-term natural rate fits the data better ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 359

Working Paper
A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence of a strong unobserved common factor can lead to an undetermined GVAR model. To solve this problem, we propose augmenting the GVAR with additional proxy equations for the strong factors and establish conditions under which forecasts from the augmented GVAR model (AugGVAR) uniformly converge in probability (as the panel dimensions N,T? ? such that N/T?? for some 0
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 213

Working Paper
Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun

In this paper, we examine changes in the time series properties of standard housing market indicators (real house prices, price-to-income ratios, and price-to-rent ratios) for a large set of countries to detect episodes of explosive dynamics. Dating exuberance in housing markets provides a timeline as well as empirical content to the narrative connecting housing exuberance to the global 2008?09 recession. For our investigation, we employ two recursive univariate unit root tests developed by Phillips et al. (2011) and Phillips et al. (2015). We also propose a novel extension of the Phillips et ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 165

Journal Article
Consequences of the Euro: monetary union, economic disunion?

Forming a monetary union brings the benefits of a shared currency but also?as the experience of the euro area shows in the years following the global financial crisis?significant costs associated with the loss of monetary policy independence and exchange rate flexibility.
Economic Letter , Volume 11 , Issue 2 , Pages 1-4

Se Habla Español: U.S. Yet to Realize Many Benefits of a Growing Bilingual Population

The Spanish-only-speaking population in the U.S. faces many challenges that include overcoming often lesser income prospects compared with monolingual English speakers.
Dallas Fed Economics

Taking the Global Housing Market’s Temperature: Is It Running a Fever (Again)?

The current trajectory prompts the question: Do markets face the prospect of a housing bubble once again? Alternatively, are price increases in step with housing market fundamentals?
Dallas Fed Economics

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