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Journal Article
The Mexican economy snaps back
Journal Article
Mexico's crisis: looking back to assess the future
Mexico's most recent economic crisis took many in the international business community by surprise. In early December 1994, the Blue Chip consensus forecast for 1995 Mexican real GDP growth was 3.8 percent. A few weeks later, on December 20, the devaluation of the Mexican peso rocked international financial markets. What first appeared to be a minor correction in Mexico's nominal exchange rate quickly developed into a broader financial crunch felt in and outside Mexico. The Mexican government now expects the country's real GDP to fall about 3 percent in 1995; some private economists suggest ...
Journal Article
Has NAFTA changed North American trade?
The controversy over the success or failure of NAFTA is now bleeding over into discussion about the benefits of extending the trade accord to other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The NAFTA debate has typically focused on its impact on employment. But to understand the overall economic effects of NAFTA, it is important to first determine its impact on trade. In this article, David Gould explores NAFTA's effects on North America's trading patterns since its implementation in 1994. He finds that although it is difficult to distinguish any effect of NAFTA on trade between Canada and ...
Journal Article
Can Mexico weather its next election cycle?
Journal Article
Beyond the border : Latin American central banking
Working Paper
Human capital externalities, trade, and economic growth
Human capital, because of its special role in innovative activity and technological progress, has formed the bedrock of the new theories of endogenous growth. Human capital, however, not only serves as an engine of growth, but also as a productive input along with labor and physical capital. In this study, we distinguish between these two roles of human capital and find evidence of the importance of both. We also find that the relationship between growth and the external effects of human capital vary according to trade regime. When literacy rates are relatively high, open economies grow about ...
Journal Article
GATT and the new protectionism
The Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) is the first agreement of its kind that reduces or eliminates tariffs on many goods and addresses issues related to intellectual property rights, trade in services and agricultural subsidies. With good reason, it has generated much optimism about the future of free world trade. ; But does GATT's trade liberalization today mean that trade will remain liberalized tomorrow? Increasingly, governments are counteracting the perceived unfair trade practices of other nations with their own trade barriers. While concerns about ...
Working Paper
Does the choice of nominal anchor matter?