Working Paper
An Output Gap Measure for the Euro Area : Exploiting Country-Level and Cross-Sectional Data Heterogeneity
Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel P. (2018-06-22)
This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the euro-area output gap by taking advantage of two types of data heterogeneity. On the one hand, the method uses information on real GDP, inflation, and the unemployment rate for each member state; on the other hand, it jointly considers this information for all the euro-area countries to extract an area-wide output gap measure. The setup is an unobserved components model that theorizes a common cycle across euro-area economies in addition to country-specific cyclical components. I estimate the model with Bayesian methods using data for the 19 ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-040

Working Paper
When Can Trend-Cycle Decompositions Be Trusted?
Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel P.; Roberts, John M. (2016-12-19)
In this paper, we examine the results of GDP trend-cycle decompositions from the estimation of bivariate unobserved components models that allow for correlated trend and cycle innovations. Three competing variables are considered in the bivariate setup along with GDP: the unemployment rate, the inflation rate, and gross domestic income. We find that the unemployment rate is the best variable to accompany GDP in the bivariate setup to obtain accurate estimates of its trend-cycle correlation coefficient and the cycle. We show that the key feature of unemployment that allows for precise ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-099

Working Paper
GDP Trend-cycle Decompositions Using State-level Data
Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel P. (2017-05)
This paper develops a method for decomposing GDP into trend and cycle exploiting the cross-sectional variation of state-level real GDP and unemployment rate data. The model assumes that there are common output and unemployment rate trend and cycle components, and that each state?s output and unemployment rate are subject to idiosyncratic trend and cycle perturbations. The model is estimated with Bayesian methods using quarterly data from 2005:Q1 to 2016:Q1 for the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Results show that the U.S. output gap reached about -8% during the Great Recession and is ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-051