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Journal Article
Central bank credibility
Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig announced he would crack down on steroid use in baseball, hoping to stop players from doping. He was forced to discipline stars like Rafael Palmeiro, possibly hurting the game immediately, in order to develop a reputation for being tough on steroids. The Federal Reserve System has worked hard over the past few decades not only to lower inflation and keep it low, but also to convince the public that it is dedicated to delivering low inflation over the long haul. This Commentary explains why credibility is so important to monetary policymakers.
Journal Article
Why policymakers might care about stock market bubbles
This Commentary makes a case for Fed action in the event of a stock market bubble. Because stock market prices serve as a signal to business managers to invest, bubbles can mislead managers into investing when it is not profitable. The overinvestment, which becomes apparent after the bubble bursts, can lead to a period of low investment, which can cause a recession. Policymakers may wish to step in to end a bubble before stock prices get too far out of line relative to their fundamentals.
Journal Article
Per capita income growth and disparity in the United States, 1929–2003
Economic theory says the average income of different regions should grow closer over time. Within the United States and across some of the richer countries, evidence suggests this is true.
Journal Article
Canada's money targeting experiment
An inquiry into why the Bank of Canada was unable to bridle the inflation of the 1970s by controlling money growth.
Journal Article
Free trade and tariffs—an uneasy mix
When U.S. steel corporations began declaring bankruptcy and laying off thousands of workers, tariffs on foreign steel seemed a reasonable way of preventing further damage to the industry. But why do most economists favor free trade?
Journal Article
On the cost of inflation
The FOMC has two objectives: maximizing sustainable economic growth and maintaining price stability. At times-like the past year-these goals appear to be in conflict. This Commentary outlines some economic theory that suggests that in the long run, the FOMC can achieve its two objectives by focusing primarily on its price stability target.
Journal Article
In search of the NAIRU
The relationship between the unemployment rate and the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is presumed to be an inflationary bellwether, but recent inflation predictions based on it have not been successful. The authors explore the reasons for this failure and suggest that it may be time to replace the NAIRU.
Journal Article
Iowa electronic markets
In 1998, University of Iowa faculty members created their own futures markets. These experimental markets, designed to provide insights into the behavior of traders and naturally occurring markets, are still going strong. Their clever design gives them another practical use: They can be used to predict future events such as election outcomes and Federal Open Market Committee voting.
Journal Article
Accounting for the jobless recoveries
Much has been made of the so-called jobless recovery of the past two business cycles?that is, their atypically weak employment growth early in the expansion phase. This Commentary examines the factors that account for this behavior, focusing on two key measures: the probabilities of job finding and job separation.
Journal Article
What labor market theory tells us about the "New Economy"
An investigation of whether economic theory supports the claim that a technology shock can change the "natural rate of unemployment."