Search Results
Discussion Paper
On the cyclical allocation of risk
A real business cycle model with heterogeneous agents is parameterized, calibrated, and simulated to see if it can account for some stylized facts characterizing postwar U.S. business cycle fluctuations, such as the countercyclical movement of labors share of income, and the acyclical behavior of real wages. There are two types of agents in the model, workers and entrepreneurs, who participate on an economy-wide market for contingent claims. On this market workers purchase insurance from entrepreneurs, through optimal labor contracts, against losses in income due to business cycle ...
Journal Article
In search of the NAIRU
The relationship between the unemployment rate and the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is presumed to be an inflationary bellwether, but recent inflation predictions based on it have not been successful. The authors explore the reasons for this failure and suggest that it may be time to replace the NAIRU.
Working Paper
Theory, measurement, and calibration of macroeconomic models
Calibration has become a standard tool of macroeconomics. This paper extends and refines the calibration methodology along several important dimensions. First, accounting for home production is important both in measuring calibration targets and in organizing the data in a model-consistent fashion. For this reason, thinking about home production is important even if the model under consideration does not include home production. Second, investment-specific technological change is included because of its strong balanced growth parameter restrictions. Third, the measurement strategy is laid out ...
Working Paper
Home production meets time-to-build
An innovation in this paper is to introduce a time-to-build technology for the production of market capital into a model with home production. The paper?s main finding is that the two anomalies that have plagued all household production models?the positive correlation between business and household investment, and household investment leading business investment over the business cycle?are resolved when time-to-build is added.
Journal Article
Accounting for the jobless recoveries
Much has been made of the so-called jobless recovery of the past two business cycles?that is, their atypically weak employment growth early in the expansion phase. This Commentary examines the factors that account for this behavior, focusing on two key measures: the probabilities of job finding and job separation.
Journal Article
Why policymakers might care about stock market bubbles
This Commentary makes a case for Fed action in the event of a stock market bubble. Because stock market prices serve as a signal to business managers to invest, bubbles can mislead managers into investing when it is not profitable. The overinvestment, which becomes apparent after the bubble bursts, can lead to a period of low investment, which can cause a recession. Policymakers may wish to step in to end a bubble before stock prices get too far out of line relative to their fundamentals.
Journal Article
Return to Capital in a Real Business Cycle Model
Can the neoclassical growth model generate fluctuations in the return to capital similar to those observed in the United States? Equating stock market returns with the return to capital, the bulk of the literature concludes that it cannot. This article makes two contributions. First is an equivalence for the neoclassical growth model between a stock market return and a return based on income and capital stock data. While the stock market return is extremely volatile, the income-based return is not. Second is the finding that the neoclassical growth model with shocks to labor productivity ...
Journal Article
Per capita income growth and disparity in the United States, 1929–2003
Economic theory says the average income of different regions should grow closer over time. Within the United States and across some of the richer countries, evidence suggests this is true.
Discussion Paper
Measuring labors share of income
Recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data show labors share of income at a historic low. This Policy Discussion Paper explores the BLS calculations with an eye to understanding the factors leading to the recent fall in labors share. While data limitations prohibit replication of the BLS series, alternative measures of labors share of income, based on either the nonfinancial corporate business sector or the macroeconomy more generally, are near their historic averages, quite unlike the BLS series.
Journal Article
Iowa electronic markets
In 1998, University of Iowa faculty members created their own futures markets. These experimental markets, designed to provide insights into the behavior of traders and naturally occurring markets, are still going strong. Their clever design gives them another practical use: They can be used to predict future events such as election outcomes and Federal Open Market Committee voting.