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Working Paper
Fiscal constraints and incentives with monetary coordination: implications for Europe 1992
This paper analyzes how the feasible mix of government expenditure and financing arrangements may change in a monetary union such as that presently under discussion for the European Community. The effect of this institutional change on the incentives facing fiscal policymakers in their budgetary decisions also is investigated. The framework of analysis is a two-country, two-period intertemporal framework with maximizing private and public sector behavior. We find that the range of feasible divergence in the present discounted value of fiscal spending is reduced in a monetary union, although ...
Working Paper
New results in support of the fiscal policy ineffectiveness proposition
We demonstrate that previous tests of money and fiscal "policy ineffectiveness" are likely to be biased because they ignore interaction effects between policies, induced either by direct policy linkages or through the variation of policies in response to common factors. Our analysis takes into account possible interactive effects between monetary and fiscal policy in an attempt to avoid the biases of previous research. Our empirical analysis of U.S. experience supports the short-run ineffectiveness of anticipated and unanticipated fiscal policy, in contrast to other empirical research, but ...
Working Paper
Off-balance-sheet liquidity and monetary control
Working Paper
Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account
The intertemporal approach to the current account is often regarded as theoretically elegant but of limited empirical significance. This paper derives highly tractable current account and investment specifications that we estimate without resorting to calibration or simulation methods. In time-series data for eight industrialized countries, we find that country-specific productivity shocks tend to worsen the current account, whereas global shocks have little effect. Both types of shock raise investment. It is a puzzle, however, for the intertemporal model that long-lasting local productivity ...
Working Paper
Fiscal policy in monetary unions: implications for Europe
This paper analyzes how the feasible mix of government expenditure and financing arrangements may change with the establishment of a monetary union such as that planned by members of the European Community. We find that a monetary union reduces the feasible divergence across countries in their present discounted levels of fiscal spending. Wide differences across countries in their present and future time pattern of spending are still possible, however. Examination of the empirical evidence suggests that the movement towards greater exchange rate fixity associated with the EMS and ...