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Working Paper
The liquidity premium in average interest rates
This paper studies recent models of the liquidity effect of money on interest rates to determine if a systematic relationship between liquidity shocks and the economy could affect the average real interest rate.
Working Paper
Identifying monetary policy with a model of the federal funds rate
With a stochastic general equilibrium model, we highlight the role of both monetary policy and banks in determining the relationship between the federal funds rate and bank reserves. Monetary policy consists of a stochastic upward-sloping supply schedule for reserves, along with a discount window and open-market operations that are consistent with this schedule. The demand schedule for reserves by banks is downward sloping in the federal runds rate, so shifts in the supply schedule lead to a negative relationship between total reserves and the federal funds rate (a liquidity effect). Shifts ...
Working Paper
Consumption and asset prices with homothetic recursive preferences
When preferences are homothetic, utility can be expressed in terms of current consumption and a variable that captures all information about future opportunities. We use this observation to express the differential equation that characterizes utility as a restriction on the information variable in terms of the dynamics of consumption. We derive the supporting price system and returns process and thereby characterize optimal consumption and portfolio decisions. We provide a fast and accurate numerical solution method and illustrate its use with a number of Markovian models. In addition, we ...
Working Paper
Bubbles as payoffs at infinity
We define rational bubbles to be securities with payoffs occurring in the infinitely distant future and investigate the behavior of bubble values. We extend our analysis to a setting of uncertainty. In an infinite-horizon arbitrage-free model of asset prices, we interpret the money market account as the value of a particular bubble; a similar interpretation holds for other assets related to the state-price deflator and to payoffs on bonds maturing in the distant future. We present three applications of this characterization of bubbles.
Working Paper
Around and around: the expectations hypothesis
We show how to construct arbitrage-free models of the term structure of interest rates in which various expectations hypotheses can hold. McCulloch (1993) provided a Gaussian non-Markovian example of the unbiased expectations hypothesis (U--EH), thereby contradicting the assertion by Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (CIR, 1981) that only the so-called local expectations hypothesis could hold. We generalize that example in three ways: (i) We characterize the U--EH in terms of forward rates; (ii) we extend this characterization to a class of expectations hypotheses that includes all of those considered ...
Working Paper
Stochastic bubbles in Markov economies
Conference Paper
Discount window borrowing and liquidity
Working Paper
Consumption and asset prices and recursive preferences
We analyze consumption and asset pricing with recursive preferences given by Kreps--Porteus stochastic differential utility (K--P SDU). We show that utility depends on two state variables: current consumption and a second variable (related to the wealth--consumption ratio) that captures all information about future opportunities. This representation of utility reduces the internal consistency condition for K--P SDU to a restriction on the second variable in terms of the dynamics of a forcing process (consumption, the state--price deflator, or the return on the market portfolio). Solving the ...