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Discussion Paper
Residual Seasonality in GDP
With a second year in a row of unusually weak first-quarter growth, some analysts have argued that there may be residual seasonality in the GDP data, that is, a predictable seasonal pattern remains in the published data.
Discussion Paper
Natural Disasters and the Measurement of Industrial Production: Hurricane Harvey, A Case Study
The Federal Reserve's G.17 release on industrial production (IP) and capacity utilization published on September 15, 2017, included one of the first estimates of the impact on a specific measure of economic activity by Hurricane Harvey, which made landfall in Texas on August 25. As reported in the release, total industrial production fell 0.9 percent in August, most of which (about 3/4 percentage point) could be accounted for by storm-related outages.
Discussion Paper
Quantifying Bottlenecks in Manufacturing
Shortages of key components and logistics problems have constrained factory output since the start of the year. Numerous anecdotes and survey measures have highlighted the emergence of supply chain bottlenecks and other supply constraints; to complement those qualitative characterizations, this note proposes a novel methodology to quantify bottlenecks in the manufacturing sector.
Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: historical revision and recent developments
The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has completed a revision of its measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization for the industrial sector. The primary feature of the revision is a new formulation for aggregating the indexes and utilization rates based on weights that are updated annually rather than every five years. The new formulation has been used to revise the output, capacity, and utilization rates back to 1977. It provides more accurate current estimates of developments in industrial production and capacity utilization and eliminates an earlier, small ...
Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2004 annual revision
In late 2004, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve issued revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period from January 1972 to November 2004. Overall, the changes to total industrial production were small. ; Measured from the fourth quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2004, industrial output is reported to have increased a little less than shown previously. Production expanded more slowly in 2000 than earlier estimates indicated, whereas the contraction in 2001 was a little less steep. The rise in ...
Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2006 annual revision
On December 11, 2006, the Federal Reserve published revisions to its index of industrial production and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. The revision affected the data from 1972 through October 2006, but the largest changes were for the period beginning in 2003. From the fourth quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2006, industrial production, as revised, increased about 13/4 percentage points less than previously reported. By year, the change in output was revised down a little for 2003, down substantially for 2004, up a little for 2005, and down a touch for 2006. ...
Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: recent developments and the 1999 annual revision
In late 1999, the Federal Reserve published revised measures of industrial production, capacity, and capacity utilization for the period January 1992 through October 1999. The updated measures reflect both the incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive source data typical of annual revisions and the introduction of improved methods for compiling a few series, including computer and office equipment and motor vehicles. The new source data are for recent years, primarily from 1997 on, and the modified methods affect data beginning in 1992. ; The production index for the third quarter ...
Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2001 annual revision
In late 2001, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System published the annual revision of its index of industrial production and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period January 1992 to October 2001. The updated measures reflect the incorporation of newly available, more-comprehensive source data and the introduction of improved methods for compiling a few series. ; Measured fourth quarter to fourth quarter, increases in rates of industrial output and capacity have been revised downward from rates previously reported for 1999 and 2000. The revision ...
Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2005 annual revision
On November 7, 2005, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System issued revisions to its index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period from January 1972 through September 2005. For this period, both the levels and the rates of change were revised. For years before 1972, the levels, but not the rates of change, were also revised. Overall, the changes to total industrial production were small. ; Besides the revisions to the monthly data for IP and capacity utilization starting in 1972, the comparison base year for all ...
Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: 1998 annual revision
In late 1998, the Federal Reserve published the results of an annual revision of its measures of industrial production, capacity, and capacity utilization, which cover the nation's manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries. The revision involved both the incorporation of newly available and more comprehensive source data and, for some series, the introduction of modified methods for compiling the series. The revised figures show stronger growth of both production and capacity since 1996; however, the overall capacity utilization rate was little changed from the previous ...