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Working Paper
Firms’ Inflation Expectations in a Monetary Union
Using data from the euro area SAFE, a novel survey of firms’ inflation expectations including a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we show that firms’ inflation expectations exhibit significant heterogeneity, challenging the predictions of full-information rational expectations models. At the same time, we document that firms update beliefs rationally but under incomplete information, with geographic location playing a dominant role in shaping expectations. Firms extrapolate from regional and national inflation to form euro area inflation expectations. A basic “Lucas island” model ...