Search Results
Working Paper
Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low- and High-Inflation Settings
Using randomized control trials (RCT) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has risen in developed economies, both households and firms have become more attentive and informed about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. This observation holds for both firms and households. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation has been consistently high (Uruguay) and low (New Zealand) as well as ...
Working Paper
Keeping up with the Jansens: Causal Peer Effects on Household Spending, Beliefs and Happiness
CORRECT ORDER OF AUTHORS: van Rooij, Coibion, Georgarakos, Candia, Gorodnichenko. How does perceived relative income affect household behavior and well-being? We use a randomized information experiment in a representative panel of Dutch households to generate exogenous variation in beliefs about peers' income. Lower perceived relative standing shifts expenditure toward durable goods but we find little evidence of an increase in total spending. Higher perceived relative income increases socializing and substantially raises happiness, while lower relative income increases subsequent employment. ...
Working Paper
Firms’ Inflation Expectations in a Monetary Union
Using data from the euro area SAFE, a novel survey of firms’ inflation expectations including a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we show that firms’ inflation expectations exhibit significant heterogeneity, challenging the predictions of full-information rational expectations models. At the same time, we document that firms update beliefs rationally but under incomplete information, with geographic location playing a dominant role in shaping expectations. Firms extrapolate from regional and national inflation to form euro area inflation expectations. A basic “Lucas island” model ...