Search Results
Conference Paper
Optimal monetary policy and the sacrifice ratio
Conference Paper
Monetary policy in a low-inflation environment: a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Minneapolis, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, October 18-20, 1999
A diverse group of economists and policymakers gathered in Woodstock, Vermont, in October 1999 to discuss the conduct of monetary policy in a low-inflation environment. The conference was held at a time when many countries had successfully reduced their inflation rates to the low single digits, an outcome without recent historical precedent that raises important questions about the conduct of monetary policy.
Conference Paper
Technology and growth: an overview
Conference Paper
The domestic economic outlook
Conference Paper
Beyond shocks: what causes business cycles? an overview
Conference Paper
Technology and growth: conference proceedings
Conference Paper
Beyond shocks: what causes business cycles?
Conference Paper
Conference summary
The conference papers and panel discussion explored a number of issues bearing on monetary policy design and operation in an environment of very low nominal interest rates.
Report
Predicting Recessions Using the Yield Curve: The Role of the Stance of Monetary Policy
The yield curve is often viewed as a leading indicator of recessions. While the yield curve’s predictive power is not without controversy, its ability to anticipate economic downturns endures across specifications and time periods. This note examines the predictive power of the yield curve after accounting for the current stance of monetary policy—a relevant issue given that monetary policy was unusually accommodative during the most recent yield curve inversion, in the third quarter of 2019. The results show that a yield curve inversion likely overstates the probability of a recession ...