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Working Paper
The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows
We describe the second-moment properties of the components of international capital flows and their relationship (covariance and correlation) to business cycle variables of 22 emerging and OECD countries. Disaggregated flows have different volatility properties, with debt being the most volatile and FDI the least volatile. We show that (a) inward flows are procyclical, outward and net outward flows are countercyclical for most industrial and emerging countries while, for the G-7, both inward and outward flows are procyclical and net outflows are countercyclical; (b) inward FDI flows are ...
Working Paper
U.S. commercial bank lending through 2008:Q4: new evidence from gross credit flows
How have U.S. commercial banks responded during the current financial crisis? What was hiding behind the dynamics of aggregate commercial bank loans through the end of 2008? We use balance sheet data for the entire population of commercial banks to construct quarterly gross credit flows (credit expansion and credit contraction series) for the U.S. banking system during the period 1999:Q1-2008:Q4 and provide new evidence on changes in lending. We show that credit expansion, as defined in this paper, began declining during the first half of 2008 while credit contraction began steeply increasing ...
Journal Article
TARP beneficiaries and their lending patterns during the financial crisis
This paper provides a systematic analysis of the lending performance of U.S. commercial banks and savings institutions that received financial support through the Capital Purchase Program (CPP) established in October 2008. The authors combine U.S. Treasury data on recipients of the CPP with quarterly financial data for the entire population of depository institutions to reconstruct aggregate lending and gross credit flows (expansion and contraction). CPP institutions experienced a less severe lending contraction than non-CPP institutions for all types of loans and bank asset levels. The ...
Working Paper
Understanding the accumulation of bank and thrift reserves during the U.S. financial crisis
The level of aggregate excess reserves held by U.S. depository institutions increased significantly at the peak of the financial crisis of 2007-09. Although the amount of aggregate reserves is almost entirely determined by the policy initiatives of the central bank that act on the asset side of its balance sheet, the motivations of individual banks in accumulating reserves differ and respond to the impact of changes in the economic environment on individual institutions. We undertake a systematic analysis of this massive accumulation of excess reserves using bank-level data for more than ...
Journal Article
Gross credit flows of U.S. commercial banks until 2008:Q3
Working Paper
Changes in the second-moment properties of disaggregated capital flows
Using formal statistical tests, we detect (i) significant volatility increases for various types of capital flows for a period of changes in business cycle comovement among the G7 countries, and (ii) mixed evidence of changes in covariances and correlations with a set of macroeconomic variables.