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Journal Article
Primer on U.S. stock price indices
The measurement of the "average" price of common stocks is a matter of widespread interest. Investors want to know how "the market" is doing, and to be able to compare their returns with a meaningful benchmark. Money managers often have their compensation tied to performance, typically measured by comparing their results to a benchmark portfolio, so they and their clients are interested in the benchmark portfolio's returns. And policymakers want to judge the potential for sudden adjustments in stock prices when differences from "fundamental value emerge. ; This article discusses some ...
Journal Article
Are stock returns different over weekends? a jump diffusion analysis of the \"weekend effect\"
The distribution of returns on common stocks is, arguably, one of the most widely studied financial market characteristics. The performance of stock prices during breaks in trading has received considerable attention in recent years, especially since the advent of "circuit breakers" designed to create stability when markets are chaotic. This study examines the distribution of daily returns on five popular stock price indices, with a special emphasis on the difference between returns over weekends and returns over adjacent intraweek trading days. The author revisits the "weekend effect" in ...
Working Paper
Debt capacity, tax exemption, and the municipal cost of capital: a reassessment of the new view
The Traditional View of municipal investment holds that the federal tax-exemption of interest payments by state and local (municipal) governments provides a capital cost subsidy to municipal investment. Recently a New View has emerged which argues that tax-exemption plays a minor role, if any, in shaping municipal investment decisions. In its simplest version (with municipal debt issued at a constant interest rate), the New View argues that tax-exemption plays a role only for municipalities in which the representative individual has an income tax rate lower than the implicit tax rate on ...
Journal Article
Stocks, bonds, options, futures, and portfolio insurance: a rose by any other name
Trading volume and open interest in options and futures contracts on stock indices, equities, and interest rate instruments traded on world exchanges have experienced remarkable growth. However, this growth has been accompanied by controversy about the proper role of financial derivatives and the potential for abuse. Prominent attention has been given to losses by major corporations, broker-related short-term mutual funds, and municipal agencies.> The public debate about "derivatives" has promoted the impression that the heart of the problem has been a proliferation of brand new ways of ...
Journal Article
Security loans at banks and nonbanks: Regulation U
Over the years, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has established margin regulations to limit purpose loans by banks and nonbanks to broker-dealers or other borrowers. In this study, the author reviews those regulations affecting security lending by banks and nonbanks. He examines data on security loans during the 1920s and 1930s, as well as in recent years, noting that security lending by banks and borrowing by broker-dealers often diverge-the popular notion that the two are tightly linked is not correct-and that during the 1920s the volume of loans by banks to brokers may ...
Journal Article
Margin lending and stock market volatility
Margin loans have long been associated in the popular mind with instability in security markets, and the potential for margin lending to exacerbate the amplitude of cycles in stock prices has received considerable attention in the years since the Crash of 1929. Despite the many empirical studies of the association between margin loans or margin requirements and the volatility of stock returns, there has been no definitive answer, and the consensus among financial economists is that margin lending plays little, if any, role in shaping the probability distribution of returns on common stocks. ...
Journal Article
Margin requirements across equity-related instruments: how level is the playing field?
Investors can participate in the returns on the Standard and Poor's 500 composite index in a variety of ways, and these alternatives exist because they differ in important respects. This article assesses one dimension of these differences-margin requirements. ; Focusing on equity-related instruments, the author develops a model to simulate the values arising from several identical positions obtained by combinations of stocks and stock derivatives. The results are then used to assess the costs of margin requirements on alternative strategies. The primary conclusion is that the playing field is ...
Working Paper
Weekends can be rough: revisiting the weekend effect in stock prices
The performance of stock prices during breaks in trading has received considerable attention in recent years. While some studies focus on performance surrounding periods of unscheduled trading breaks (trading halts in individual stocks, circuit breakers for exchanges), other studies look at performance around periods of scheduled trading breaks (holidays, weekends). This paper fits into the second group. We revisit the "weekend effect" in common stock returns. Our focus is on two characteristics of differential returns over intraweek trading days and over weekends: the mean return, or ...
Journal Article
Mutual fund myths
Working Paper
Tax-exempt bonds really do subsidize municipal capital!
The traditional view of municipal finance holds that the federal tax-exemption of interest payments by state and local (municipal) governments provides a capital cost subsidy to municipal investment equal to the difference between interest rates on taxable and tax-exempt bonds. Recently, a new view has emerged which argues that tax-exemption plays a minor role, if any, in shaping municipal investment decisions. According to this new view, communities will use tax finance at the margin except in the unusual case where only debt finance is used. Thus, tax-exemption is an intramarginal (lump ...