Working Paper
What drives movements in the unemployment rate? a decomposition of the Beveridge curve
Figura, Andrew; Barnichon, Regis (2010)
This paper presents a framework to interpret movements in the Beveridge curve and analyze unemployment fluctuations. We decompose the unemployment rate into three main components: (1) a component driven by changes in labor demand--movements along the Beveridge curve and shifts in the Beveridge curve due to layoffs--(2) a component driven by changes in labor supply--shifts in the Beveridge curve due to quits, movements in-and-out of the labor force and demographics--and (3) a component driven by changes in the efficiency of matching unemployed workers to jobs. We find that cyclical movements ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2010-48

Working Paper
The causes and consequences of economic restructuring: evidence from the early 21st century
Wascher, William L.; Figura, Andrew (2008)
A number of industries underwent large and permanent reductions in employment growth at the beginning of this decade, a process we label as restructuring. We describe how restructuring occurred and what its consequences were for the economy. In particular, we find that restructuring stemmed largely from relative demand shocks (though technology shocks were important in some industries) and that elevated levels of permanent job destruction and permanent layoffs were distinguishing features of industries subject to restructuring. In addition, most workers displaced in restructuring industries ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2008-41

Discussion Paper
What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?
Figura, Andrew; Waller, Christopher J. (2022-07-29)
Any assessment of the likelihood and characteristics of a soft landing should take into account the situation in the labor market currently and the likely dynamics in the labor market going forward. Modern labor market models centered around the Beveridge curve are a useful tool in this assessment.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2022-07-29

Working Paper
What drives matching efficiency? a tale of composition and dispersion
Figura, Andrew; Barnichon, Regis (2011)
This paper presents a framework to study movements in the matching efficiency of the labor market and highlights two observable factors affecting matching efficiency: (i) unemployment composition and (ii) dispersion in labor market conditions, the fact that tight labor markets coexist with slack ones. Using CPS micro data over 1976-2009, we find that composition is responsible for most of the movements in matching efficiency until 2006. In 2008-2009, only forty percent of an exceptionally low matching efficiency can be attributed to composition. New highly disaggregated data on vacancies and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2011-10

Working Paper
How biased are measures of cyclical movements in productivity and hours?
Figura, Andrew; Aaronson, Stephanie (2005)
The movement of hours worked over the business cycle is an important input into the estimation of many key parameters in macroeconomics. Unfortunately, the available data on hours do not correspond precisely to the concept required for accurate inference. We study one source of mismeasurement--that the most commonly used source data measure hours paid instead of hours worked--focusing our attention on salaried workers, a group for whom the gap between hours paid and hours worked is likely particularly large. We show that the measurement gap varies significantly and positively with changes in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2005-38

Working Paper
The Effects of Unemployment Benefits on Unemployment and Labor Force Participation: Evidence from 35 Years of Benefits Extensions
Figura, Andrew; Barnichon, Regis (2014-08-13)
This paper presents estimates of the effect of emergency and extended unemployment benefits (EEB) on the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate using a data set containing information on individuals likely eligible and ineligible for EEB back to the late 1970s. To identify these estimates, we examine how exit rates from unemployment change across different points of the distribution of unemployment duration when EEB is and is not available, controlling for changes in labor demand and demographic characteristics. We find that EEB increased the unemployment rate by about ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-65

Working Paper
Is reallocation related to the cycle? A look at permanent and temporary job flows
Figura, Andrew (2002)
How much of aggregate employment fluctuations is due to plants destroying and then recreating the same jobs over the cycle and how much is due to some plants permanently destroying jobs in a recession and other plants permanently creating jobs in an expansion? This paper decomposes plant level job flows into permanent and temporary components to answer this question, and finds that the permanent reallocation of jobs across plants accounts for approximately 30 percent of the cyclical fluctuations in aggregate employment.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2002-16

Working Paper
Reconciling Unemployment Claims with Job Losses in the First Months of the COVID-19 Crisis
Price, Brendan M.; Ratner, David; Weingarden, Alison E.; Figura, Andrew; Cajner, Tomaz (2020-07-17)
In the spring of 2020, many observers relied heavily on weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits (UI) to estimate contemporaneous reductions in US employment induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Though UI claims provided a timely, high-frequency window into mounting layoffs, the cumulative volume of initial claims filed through the May reference week substantially exceeded realized reductions in payroll employment and likely contributed to the historically large discrepancy between consensus expectations of further April-to-May job losses and the strong job gains reflected in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-055

Working Paper
Have cyclical movements in the unemployment rate become more persistent?
Figura, Andrew (2011)
I examine whether the cyclical behavior of unemployment has changed over the post WWII period. Specifically, I test whether cyclical movements in unemployment have become more persistent. Finding that they have, indeed, become more persistent, I then take some initial steps in explaining why. I find that the increase in persistence has affected private nonfarm payroll employment as well as unemployment and that increased persistence appears to be widespread across industries. At the same time, increased persistence owes primarily to greater persistence in job finding rates and greater ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2011-33

Discussion Paper
The Labor Share of Income and Equilibrium Unemployment
Figura, Andrew; Ratner, David (2015-06-08)
After rising to 10 percent in the wake of the Great Recession, the unemployment rate is now approaching a level that many observers--including the Congressional Budget Office, as shown in Figure 1--associate with the natural rate of unemployment.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2015-06-08-1