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Journal Article
Is the U.S. Labor Force Nearing Its Peak?
Despite an aging population, the U.S. labor force has grown substantially from pre-pandemic levels. Thus far, strong labor force participation rates and immigration flows have more than offset downward pressure from an increasing number of retirements. However, the U.S. labor force is likely nearing its peak: Increases in participation rates are unlikely to fully offset headwinds from slowing immigration and continued aging.
Journal Article
COVID-19 Challenges State and Local Government Finances
As the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc on the U.S. economy, state and local governments will not be immune from the pain. In the near term, governments face liquidity challenges, as many tax deadlines have been postponed. In the longer term, governments will experience large revenue declines that may lead to significant budget cuts.
Journal Article
COVID-19 Stuns U.S. and Tenth District Economies, but Both Show Signs of Stabilization
COVID-19 and attempts to slow its spread have led to a decline in economic activity unprecedented in both severity and speed. Although every part of the United States experienced dramatic decreases in activity, states in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, with lower COVID-19 cases as a percentage of the population, have fared slightly better. More recently, national and regional measures of business and consumer activity have improved but remain well below pre-pandemic levels.
Journal Article
COVID-19 Poses Risks for State and Local Public Pensions
If the coronavirus pandemic leads to a protracted recession, public pension funding could weaken further in the years to come. During the 2001 and 2007–09 recessions, investment returns failed to reach pension plans’ longer-term assumed returns, and shortfalls in state and local government budgets led some employers to temporarily reduce contributions. If pension funding falls during the current crisis, state and local governments may choose to adjust plan structures as they did after the Great Recession.
Journal Article
Consumer Spending Declines, Shifts in Response to the Pandemic
Consumer spending plunged last spring as the pandemic swept through the United States. Although spending rebounded sharply in the second half of 2020, it remained below year-ago levels due to persistently high unemployment, business restrictions, and continued health risks in social settings. In addition to the drop in overall spending, the pandemic has led to dramatic shifts in the mix of goods and services that consumers purchase.
Journal Article
Lower Labor Force Participation Rates and Slower Population Growth Pose Challenges for Employers
As the nation recovers from the pandemic-induced recession, finding workers to fill job openings has beena headwind for many regions and industries. Although many researchers have pointed to the sharp declinein labor force participation rates as an explanation, the role of population growth over time has receivedless attention. We examine state and national trends in these measures and show that slower populationgrowth and an aging population may put downward pressure on labor force growth for some time.
Journal Article
Marijuana Industry Has Boosted Economic Activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District
Since Colorado became the first state to open recreational marijuana stores in January 2014, the marijuana industry has expanded across the nation and to other states in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, including Missouri, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. Within the Tenth District, this expansion has increased commercial real estate demand and tax revenues and created jobs, but has also presented challenges for the industry and local communities.
Journal Article
Federal Government Outlays Remain Historically Elevated, Spurred by Robust Transfers
Over the past six decades, the federal government has shifted a larger share of its outlays toward transfer payments to individuals and state and local governments. These longer-run trends were exacerbated during the pandemic, leading to higher deficits for the federal government and an increasingly high share of federal outlays supporting the economy through consumer spending.
Journal Article
The growth and volatility of state tax revenue sources in the Tenth District
With the sluggishness in the national economy in 2008, many state governments are projecting budget shortfalls for the 2009 fiscal year. This trend is a concern to policymakers, as the health of a state's tax revenues is important to its economic growth and its ability to finance the public services that residents demand. State governments provide physical infrastructure, educate the future workforce, and protect people and property. In addition, in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, state and local governments employ over 16 percent of the workforce. ; While a number of factors influence ...
Journal Article
Do state corporate income taxes reduce wages?
Amid falling revenues and impending budget shortfalls, state policymakers must find ways to increase revenue, cut spending, or both. At the same time, they must develop policies that attract or keep businesses and jobs. Some policymakers may consider raising corporate tax rates because it avoids directly taxing workers who are already suffering the effects of this recession. But as states reevaluate their current tax policy, it is important to consider the effects of each tax component. One important question is: Who will bear the burden of the taxes? ; State corporate income taxes are ...