Journal Article
When oil prices jump, is speculation to blame?
Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan; Fawley, Brett W. (2012-04)
Whenever the price at the pump climbs week after week, people start pointing fingers at investment banks, hedge funds and other speculators. This article quantifies the role that speculation played in the rise of oil prices during the past decade.
The Regional Economist , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Commodity price gains: speculation vs. fundamentals
Juvenal, Luciana; Fawley, Brett W. (2011-07)
Commodities of all sorts have risen in price over the past few years. Some say that the prices reflect a bubble, driven by low interest rates and excessive speculation. Others say the price gains can be fully explained by supply and demand.
The Regional Economist , Issue July , Pages 4-9

Journal Article
Quantitative easing: lessons we've learned
Juvenal, Luciana; Fawley, Brett W. (2012-07)
The Regional Economist , Issue Jul

Journal Article
Why health care matters and the current debt does not
Juvenal, Luciana; Fawley, Brett W. (2011-10)
All of the attention given to raising the debt ceiling this past summer might lead some to believe that spending by the federal government only recently became unsustainable. Hardly. We've been on this path a long time.
The Regional Economist , Issue Oct , Pages 4-5

Journal Article
The evolution of Federal Reserve policy and the impact of monetary policy surprises on asset prices
Fawley, Brett W.; Neely, Christopher J. (2014)
This article describes the joint evolution of Federal Reserve policy and the study of the impact of monetary policy surprises on high-frequency asset prices. Since the 1970s, the Federal Open Market Committee has clarified its objectives and modified its procedures to become more transparent and predictable. Researchers have had to account for these changes to procedures and perceived objectives in developing methods to study the effects of monetary surprises. Unexpected changes to the Committee?s federal funds target and postmeeting statements strongly and consistently affect asset prices, ...
Review , Volume 96 , Issue 1 , Pages 73-109

Working Paper
Capital flows and Japanese asset volatility
Fawley, Brett W.; Neely, Christopher J. (2011)
Characterizing asset price volatility is an important goal for financial economists. The literature has shown that variables that proxy for the information arrival process can help explain and/or forecast volatility. Unfortunately, however, obtaining good measures of volume and/or order flow is expensive or difficult in decentralized markets such as foreign exchange. We investigate the extent that Japanese capital flows?which are released weekly?reflect information arrival that improves foreign exchange and equity volatility forecasts. We find that capital flows can help explain transitory ...
Working Papers , Paper 2011-034

Journal Article
Unemployment and the role of monetary policy
Fawley, Brett W.; Juvenal, Luciana (2010)
On balance, the figure suggests that structural unemployment during economic downturns has increased since 1991.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Food prices and inflation in emerging markets
Fawley, Brett W.; Juvenal, Luciana (2011)
The experience of the past decade illustrates the sensitivity of inflation in emerging markets to rapidly rising food prices.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
The great Chinese housing boom
Wen, Yi; Fawley, Brett W. (2013)
Significant store-of-value demand for housing suggests a bubble that could burst, especially when both the household income growth rate and the savings rate start to decline and capital controls in China start to relax.
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Japan reenters the foreign exchange market
Fawley, Brett W.; Juvenal, Luciana (2010)
From 1999 to 2004 Japan unilaterally sold a combined, and unprecedented, 500 billion dollars of yen.
Economic Synopses