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Working Paper
General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory- inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: a translation and critique
We characterize the LSE approach by its implications for reduced-form modeling and structural interpretations. Much of what has come to be associated with the LSE methodology involves the approach to fitting reduced forms, and can be thought of as a pragmatic solution to problems created by short samples plagued by serial correlation. The policy analysis one might be able to do with an LSE model, on the other hand, hinges on structural identification arguments which do not meet the classic Cowles Commission standards, and is thus suspect.
Conference Paper
Introduction
Journal Article
An investigation of co-movements among the growth rates of the G-7 countries
Early in 2000, after a decade of economic expansion, growth began to slow simultaneously in the large, advanced economies known as the Group of Seven (G-7)--Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The general slide in GDP growth fueled speculation that a period was emerging in which broad movements in the economies of the industrialized countries would be more closely linked. Proponents of this view argued that greater trade in goods and financial markets was leading to a greater synchronization of national economies. A rise in the co-movement of GDP ...
Journal Article
Summary of Papers Presented at the Conference "Models and Monetary Policy: Research in the Tradition of Dale Henderson, Richard Porter, and Peter Tinsley"
On March 26 and 27, 2004, the Federal Reserve Board held a conference in Washington, D.C., on the application of economic models to the analysis of monetary policy issues. The papers presented at the conference addressed several topics that, because they are of interest to central bankers, have been a prominent feature of Federal Reserve research over the years. In particular, the papers represent research in the tradition of work carried out over the past thirty-five years at the Federal Reserve by three prominent staff economists -- Dale W. Henderson, Richard D. Porter, and Peter A. ...
Working Paper
Identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates using high frequency data
This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks in an international vector autoregression. Using high-frequency data on the prices of Fed Funds futures contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of the FOMC-day Federal Reserve policy decision on financial variables, such as the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate. We show how this information can be used to achieve identification without having to make the usual strong assumption of a recursive ordering.
Journal Article
Does the inverted yield curve signal a recession?
Working Paper
Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior
While much empirical work has addressed the role of monetary policy shocks in exchange rate behavior, conclusions have been clouded by the lack of plausible identifying assumptions. We apply a recently developed inference procedure allowing us to relax dubious identifying assumptions. This work overturns some earlier results and strengthens others: i) Contrary to earlier findings of "delayed overshooting," the peak exchange rate effect of policy shocks may come nearly immediately after the shock; ii) In every otherwise reasonable identification, monetary policy shocks lead to large ...
Journal Article
Judging investment strength: taking account of high tech
Working Paper
Identifying vars based on high frequency futures data
Using the prices of federal funds futures contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of Federal Reserve policy decisions on the expected future trajectory of interest rates. We show how this information can be used to identify the effects of a monetary policy shock in a standard monetary policy VAR. This constitutes an alternative approach to identification that is quite different, and, we would argue, more plausible, than the conventional short-run restrictions. We find that the usual recursive identification of the model is rejected, but we nevertheless agree with the ...